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17 Dec

Braves send Moss to Giants for Ortiz

ajc.com | Braves | BRAVES

I don’t quite get this one. Ortiz is a better pitcher than Moss, with a better track record. But he’s righthanded and has a lot more experience (though he’s only a year older, if his listed age is correct) and hence makes a lot more money.

The Braves also gave up a minor league pitcher, Manuel Mateo, who was in rookie ball last year. He was good, but that’s so far from the majors that it doesn’t mean a whole lot.

18 Responses to “Braves send Moss to Giants for Ortiz”

  1. 1
    Craig Calcaterra Says:

    Moss 2002 ERA+ = 120
    Ortiz 2002 ERA+ = 105
    Moss Salary = League minimum
    Ortiz Salary = $2.8 million

    Please explain this to me. All I can think is that JS thought that he had an urgent need to fill the “soft tossing lefty” hole Glavine left. Oh wait, we have Hampton. Of course, Ortiz had a couple of good games against the Braves last year, and we know how JS tends to value that sort of thing highly. I mean, that’s part of why he signed Castilla.

    On a subjective level, Moss looks like someone who can throw a no-hitter every other time out there, while Ortiz is capable of being very hittable.

    IMHO This trade was really, really stupid.

  2. 2
    Craig Calcaterra Says:

    My bad, Moss’ ERA+ was not 120. BR.com had league ERA and his ERA reversed.

    Still, not a good trade in my mind.

  3. 3
    Colin Says:

    It’s a hard read for me. I think Moss is due to come back to earth next year pretty hard. But even with a substantial regression, I don’t think he’d be substantially worse than ortiz. Weird.

    But yeah, Craig, can’t underestimate the value of those two games against in the postseason (and a 7 IP/ 2 ER outing in the regular season).

  4. 4
    Mac Thomason Says:

    I think Ortiz is a better pitcher, as I said. (And he’s a hard-throwing righty, not a soft-tossing lefty.) Moss’s control problems were very worrisome, and he really was never that good in the minors. For a guy who allowed so few hits, his strikeout totals were low, and that indicates to me that he was lucky. I also think that the Braves were worried that he wouldn’t do as well without Glavine around.

    Baseball-Reference park-adjusts the league ERAs, that’s probably why Moss’ ERA+ is better than Ortiz’s; Pac Bell is a strong pitchers’ park.

  5. 5
    Craig Calcaterra Says:

    I’m certainly no expert, and I’m wrong on this sort of thing fairly often, but I just get a strong sense that Moss is the real deal and will improve. No data supports this. Just gut. I know, I know . . .

    >From SF’s perspective, this is a salary dump, right? I guess it makes me feel better when I realize that it’s not the Braves who are letting a quality pitcher go in order to make room for (in part) Marquis Grissom’s contract.

  6. 6
    david chandler Says:

    I think this is a good deal. The only negative I see with Ortiz is his control, and he showed some progress with that last year. Moss’ control was even worse, and unlike Craig, I kept thinking he was just really lucky on his hits per balls in play. As Mac pointed out, he didn’t just walk a lot of guys, he didn’t strike too many out either. Moss was fun, being a wacky aussie and all, but Ortiz has been and probably will continue to be the better pitcher.

    The thing that worries me though is if JS pulled the trigger on this deal because he believes a Maddux signing is getting less likely. And of course, we still need bats more than arms.

  7. 7
    Robert Says:

    Seems like a pretty good deal by John S. to me. Moss’s value was as high as it’s ever going to get and this was an excellant time to cash him in. Last season Moss had the NL’s best defense behind him, Leo the league’s best pitching coach helping him, and an on site mentor in Glavine to set an example. I would say there is a better than average chance that he will never have a season as good as last season, and a fair chance he may just drop of the earth all together.

    Ortiz on the other hand has taken everything Dusty Baker could throw at him and is still very good every year. The Braves apparently could afford to pay him and the Giants couldn’t. The only real concern is that Ortiz has a lot of miles on his arm, but he looked strong late last year so we shall see.

    This is a win for Atlanta.

  8. 8
    Sam Hutcheson Says:

    Weird deal, as has been said before. Really I think it’s mostly treading water, only Bobby gets a Proven Veteran to run out there.

    Also, I wonder how much the Braves worry about the loss of Glavine’s influence on Moss. As Colin points out, Moss lived dangerously last year, but he’s lived dangerously throughout his career. Always tossed lots of walks in with very few hits. Still, it’s not that big of a deal, aside from the fact that it eats up more salary.

    Which is a big deal in itself, I guess.

    Jolly’s going to explode, ya know.

    s/

  9. 9
    Rivers Says:

    Proving once again that John Schuerholtz wouldn’t know a park factor from shinola…

    Home: 295.1 IP, 3.32 ERA, 3.53 RA, 7.68 H/9, .43 HR/9, 6.37 K/9, 4.11 BB/9
    Road: 333.1 IP, 4.48 ERA, 4.86 RA, 8.59 H/9, 1.13 HR/9 7.13 K/9 4.37 BB/9

    This guy’s a below average pitcher on the road. Unless the Braves are planning on turning him into J.D. Drew, this was pretty damn stupid.

  10. 10
    Jeffrey Says:

    While I’m of the opinion that Moss greatly overachieved last year, and was very luck concerning balls in play rate, if you compare his numbers to Ortiz, they are very similar. Same K rate, walk rates. Ortiz has a better HR rate, but only since moving to Pac Bell. If you look at Ortiz before Pac Bell, it’s nearly identical to Moss.

    Ortiz does have a longer track record at this level, which is worth something. Is it worth an extra $4M a year? I’m not so sure.

    I think JS was wise to move Moss, but I’m not sure Ortiz was the guy to move him for. Is it possible that JS will turn around and trade Ortiz? There certainly were a number of other teams after him.

  11. 11
    Jeffrey Says:

    My bad on Ortiz’s salary, it’s not quite as high as I thought. Still quite a bit more tho – I hope he trades Ortiz for a bat.

  12. 12
    Rivers Says:

    You were right about Ortiz’s salary. He’s making $4.4MM this year.

  13. 13
    THardy Says:

    I am pretty happy with this deal. Ortiz has proven himself in the front of the Giants rotation. While I do like Moss, he scares me. I think he could be a ERA time-bomb waiting to go off. He worked out of jam after jam last season. While that shows his immense amount of heart, it could also go the other way. Baseball is a cruel game. I hope he does well in SF and has a fine career.

    I’m happy with Ortiz as #4 in the Braves rotation or as has been speculated… trade bait. Given the Braves tendency towards pitching, I think he’s staying.

  14. 14
    Troy Says:

    Yes, and Ortiz serves as a better insurance policy late in the rotation. With Marquis still a question mark, it’s probably going to be better to have the proven Ortiz in there than Moss, who is still an unsure commodity despite his solid numbers last year.

    The overall success of the starting pitching obviously still hinges on getting Maddux, but Millwood/Hampton/Ortiz/Marquis sounds like a GREAT potential 2-5 to me, if not a decent 1-4 set of arms.

  15. 15
    Troy Says:

    Oh, I almost forgot the other positive message here: Ortiz beat us TWICE last postseason, and of course we already got rid of the guy the Giants beat twice.

    For all the talk here after that series about how our guys just don’t perform in the playoffs, I would have expected to see a little more congratulations to JS+co for this move.

  16. 16
    Jim Says:

    A few thoughts:

    1) Ortiz has been subjected to the Baker treatment for the last few years (Threw over 110 pitches 20 times in 2002). Will all those pitches catch up with him?

    2) I like Moss. However he didn’t perform as well as Ortiz-Moss had a .697 SLG% against last year/ Ortiz .675. Moss’s run average 4.02 ( he gave up 12 unearned)/ Ortiz 3.79 (gave up 3 unearned)-I don’t think Ortiz is 4 million dollars better.

    3)This leaves us with a rotation of Millwood, Hampton, Marquis, Ortiz, and Byrd ????

    And a lineup of:

    C-Lopez
    1B-?
    2B-?
    SS-Furcal
    3B-?
    OF-Shef & Joneses

    It looks to me like there have to be still more deals in the works. My guess is Millwood or Marquis gets traded, most likely Marquis.

    4) Will JS ever get over his pitching fetish and get us some offense?

    -BTW I don’t like the Byrd signing, is he any different than T. Hodges?

  17. 17
    Troy Says:

    Millwood better not get traded. He is a gem, one of the better pitchers in the league last year, and probably our number one starter after the Maddux era (which I guess could come about any day now)..

  18. 18
    Jim Says:

    Baseball America on Mateo:

    “Mateo, 20, was rated by Baseball America as the top pitching prospect in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League this season, his first in the United States. Signed out of the Dominican in 1999, he has a fastball with plus velocity (93-95 mph) and movement. His slider and changeup are still inconsistent, which is typical for a young pitcher, but his secondary pitches do have promise. Mateo went 7-3, 1.98 in the GCL, holding opponents to a .193 average and posting a 76-12 strikeout-walk ratio in 68 innings.”

    Doesn’t sound like just a throw in. However, I think 20 is a little old for Rookie ball, right?

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