Braves Journal, The House That Mac Built

Scarred, but smarter.

18 Nov

Juan Francisco (by Rusty S.)

In 2011, Juan Francisco, on his way to compiling a .289 OBP in 93 AB’s, hit a 502-foot home run out of Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati.

That nicely summarizes Francisco’s offensive strength and weakness: intriguing power, but low demonstrated on-base ability. In four Major League seasons, Francisco has managed only 361 ABs, with 14 HRs, and a .258/.303/.440 line. In his one season in Atlanta, he had 192 ABs, with 9 HRs and a .234/.278/.432.

Defensively, at 6’2″, 245 pounds, Francisco covers a lot of ground just standing there; after he starts moving, not so much. Francisco has been allowed to play 3B in 89 Major League games, and in that small sample he has a .940 Fielding % compared to a league average of .953, and a Range Factor per 9 innings of 2.16, compared to a league average of 2.49.

The eyeball test backs up the small sample. On April 9th, Francisco made 3 errors against the Astros, after which Mac dubbed him Juan “Frankfurterfingers” Francisco.

In a perfect world, Francisco would play the artist formerly known as Eric Hinske. In a reasonably okay world, Francisco would be the left-handed part of a 3rd base platoon, as Sam Hutcheson wrote a week ago.

Francisco turns 26 in June, and projects to improve offensively. He has a fairly sizable Minor League record, including 700 at-bats in Triple-A, in which he batted .304/.337/.559, with 38 HRs. Given all that, I could imagine Francisco hitting for a .275 BA/.315 OBP with 18 HR in about 350 ABs as a platoon third baseman. Even though we are looking at small Major League sample sizes, his .190 BA against left handers in 63 Major League AB’s doesn’t indicate a full time role is a great option.

For whatever it’s worth, Chipper’s 2012 range factor/9 innings was 2.23 in 103 games. Francisco’s not a huge drop defensively from what we had last season. Whether that is acceptable or not is another matter. Moreover, Francisco played a grand total of 11 games in the outfield in the Minors. No one at the Major League level has thought that was a good idea. So it’s really third base or bust.

That said, if you haven’t seen Francisco’s bomb at Great American, scroll back up and click the link. It’s worth seeing.

56 Responses to “Juan Francisco (by Rusty S.)”

  1. 1
    Bethany Says:

    Thanks Rusty!!!

    @80 from the last thread: I KNEW IT. It’s so stupid to give him that kind of money when he’s not going to produce at the level Ross produced for us.

  2. 2
    kc Says:

    @1. There is nothing more important than have a healthy McCann back, and that’s regardless of having Ross back or not.

  3. 3
    Parish Says:


    Record against teams in the current BCS Top Ten:

    Notre Dame: 0-0
    K-State: 0-0
    Oregon: 0-0
    Georgia: 1-1
    Bama: 1-1

    For either Bama or UGA to make the BCS champ game, they will have at least one more win against this list (same with Florida, who is currently 3-1 against this list). The same cannot be said about the other three.

    Cupcake schools or not this week, the SEC schools schedules stand up pretty well in comparison.

  4. 4
    Sam Hutcheson Says:

    1. I tend to think of Juan Francisco as Mongo from “Blazing Saddles.”

    2. UGA scheduled GA Southern this week because Richt didn’t want to go into UGA/GT and get blindsided by the Wishbone-T. (Considering how poorly they played it against GSU in the first half, that’s a good call by Richt.)

    3. The de facto national championship game will be played on Dec 1 in Atlanta.

    4. I hate Notre Dame the way I hate Duke and the New Orleans Saints.

  5. 5
    Coop Says:

    Thanks, Rusty.

    2013 could be a wildly disappointing or triumphant season. I’d like to solve the third base-left field-center field puzzle soon.

    I fear going into the season filling those slots with some combination of F’ing Success, Prado, Gattis, Reed Johnson (have we made him an offer?) and Frankfurter Fingers.

    Do something wonderful soon, Mr. Wren, pretty please.

  6. 6
    JoeCraigMcMurtry Says:

    Francisco is OPSing about 1.000 in the Dominican. But with a KK/BB ration of 5. Tantalizingly close to be a bonafide major league slugger.

    Given the market, Laird is an excellent signing for those dollars. He is basically half the cost of Ross. Adjusted for park effects and DH at-bats I am willing to bet that over the length of the contract Laird is equally valuable, largely due to better health. At the end of the season Ross looked like a guy whose body is about as broken down as Chipper’s.

  7. 7
    ryan c Says:

    DOB hinting that we’ve offer BJ 5/75 million. About what I figured, but still pretty steep. He’s been worth 15 million every full year except ’09. It looks as though he’ll have to average between 3&4 WAR/year to be worth the contract. It’s probably a safe bet that he could pull that off. Contract would be from his age 28 season through age 32 season. Thoughts?

  8. 8
    ryan c Says:

    I’m sure it’s just smoke blowing, but Wren was on radio saying Hamilton, Bourn, and Upton are all CF possibilities for ’13.

  9. 9
    Sam Hutcheson Says:

    There’s no reason why any of those three – Hampton, Bourn or Upton – wouldn’t be options. They probably have a preferred option; my guess is Upton because the Braves tend to like to spread their big-money contracts around rather than going all-in on one guy (like Hamilton.) But if Upton goes elsewhere, I suspect Hamilton is their next preferred option.

    The Braves have $30 mil coming off the books. They’ve shown over the last decade that they’re not going to *increase* their payroll significantly, but they’re not going to decrease it either.

  10. 10
    Bethany Says:

    I’m not sure I’ve ever disliked a great football player when he struggles as much as Matt Ryan. There’s no logic to it; he’s an amazing player and I’m glad the Falcons have him, but damn, when he isn’t on, I want to rip my hair out.

  11. 11
    Bethany Says:

    And the he gets picked AGAIN.

  12. 12
    Stu Says:


  13. 13
    Bethany Says:


  14. 14
    Alex Remington (Another Alex R.) Says:

    Not the ideal way to win a game, admittedly.

  15. 15
    Nick Says:

    Always good when you can win a game where not a single thing goes your way.

  16. 16
    Sam Hutcheson Says:

    Oh, I’m pretty sure the Cardinals deciding to not play through the whistle on the fumble/TD went “our way.” What a terrible game.

  17. 17
    csg Says:

    Id assume that if the Braves have offered Upton that deal he wouldve already signed.

  18. 18
    justhank Says:

    Matty Ice becomes Matty Brain Freeze far too often …

  19. 19
    ububba Says:

    Notre Dame vs. an SEC champ is gonna do some serious TV ratings.

  20. 20
    Adam M Says:

    I have never been more upset after a win as I was after today’s Falcons game. In fact, I might have preferred a loss. That way at least the “win is just a win!” people could be silenced, and the likelihood of the Packers playing in the Dome in January would go down.

    Also, why is Michael Turner still ruining my Sundays?


  21. 21
    ububba Says:

    In the NFL, there are no style points–a win really is a win.

  22. 22
    kc Says:

    @21 How does it being different in MLB or NBA?

  23. 23
    Bethany Says:

    @22 I think the comparison he is making is with college football, in which the way you win the game matters just as much as winning it.

  24. 24
    JonathanF Says:

    @23 Tell Notre Dame that.

  25. 25
    Mike N. Says:

    Well, Miami decided to self impose a postseason ban. That means the 6-5 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will be heading to the ACC Championship Game!

  26. 26
    MikeM Says:

    I don’t know that last year’s SEC title game really scored very well on “style points”.

  27. 27
    Smitty Says:

    We could be headed to another all SEC NC game.

  28. 28
    justhank Says:

    Florida State’s gotta be thinking “I’m surrounded by idiots!”

    Gators should beware, I’m betting.

  29. 29
    kc Says:

    @23. Well said

  30. 30
    Seat Painter Says:

    OK, so now that the ACC is imploding – who’s going to go where?

  31. 31
    Rob Cope Says:

    I just want to know where FSU is going. All the others will be filler in a big, real conference.

  32. 32
    Adam M Says:

    In the NFL, there are no style points–a win really is a win.

    Falcons are going to the postseason, and in this case, a loss doesn’t much matter either. In the end, the game is disappointing because it shows they’re unable to fix the troubles. It also shows that the Falcons will be a 13-3 or 14-2 underdog in their first playoff game. And they’ll probably lose. No one should complain about the lack of media respect.

    As for the B1G’s latest idiocy, I’d now like to see Michigan and OSU join the SEC, if only to make the Big Ten truly and utterly irrelevant. Although I suppose it already is.

  33. 33
    ububba Says:

    Who cares about media respect?

  34. 34
    Smitty Says:

    Maryland and Rutgers? Wow, those are the two biggest TV markets in the ACC.

  35. 35
    Nick Says:

    I’ve never understood the clamoring for Rutgers because of the New York media market. You could barely fill a thimble with the amount New York cares about Rutgers athletics.

  36. 36
    Stu Says:

    Tennessee should try to catch on with one of these lesser conferences in which they’d stand a chance of being competitive.

  37. 37
    Nick Says:


    Ha ha ha ha ha ha HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA…(sobs)

  38. 38
    Nick Says:

    By the way, the point at which I went through the looking glass Saturday night is when Dooley idiotically ran a fake punt from his own 10, had it work anyway as a receiver went streaking wide open down the center of the field, then Palardy threw the ball like a 4-year-old girl and it barely got back to the line of scrimmage. At that point, it was so ridiculous that I wasn’t even upset anymore.

  39. 39
    justhank Says:

    @36 – be careful, Icarus.

  40. 40
    Stu Says:

    At that point, you know what being a VU fan from about 1960 to 2010 felt like.

  41. 41
    Stu Says:

    Gah, lack of edit function.

  42. 42
    justhank Says:

    Back to Francisco – unless some other real options show up, a platoon with Marteen is probably not the worst thing in the world.

    We’re probably only going to be able to afford to replace one of Bourn or Chipper, so that leaves LF in limbo. If we must sign Upton (sigh), I’m thinking LF can be handled by Prado (against RH) and the hairy ex-Cub (against LH).

    Not ideal, but Francisco does provide our biggest offensive need now that Chipper is gone and McCann is recuperating. Damn, I hate being poor.

  43. 43
    csg Says:

    Fransisco shouldnt be in our plans for anything other than a bench bat.

  44. 44
    Coop Says:

    Fix centerfield first. Then squeeze what value you can out of Francisco. Somebody in some bandbox may need a left-handed masher.

  45. 45
    Alex Remington (Another Alex R.) Says:

    Actually, I wonder if the Yankees might be able to use a platoon third baseman with huge power from the left side of the plate.

  46. 46
    mravery Says:

    Personally, I’d welcome Upton at that price. I didn’t think the Braves would be able to go that high, but if they can, it should work out well for them. If you’re going to spend money in free agency, Upton is the type of player (relatively young, athletic, still some upside) you want to do it on.

  47. 47
    Dusty Says:

    Honestly, I worry in this market with all the new TV money that 5/$75 isn’t enough for Upton. Torii Hunter’s getting 13 a year and he’s like 37 right? I know it’s only for 2 years, but I fear we are entering a brave new world. Maybe I’m wrong.

  48. 48
    mravery Says:

    Oh, I’d be a little surprised if he signed for that much. But who knows. Maybe the Nats sign Pagan and the Phillies blow their wad on Bourne and no one else wants to shell out for a CF.

  49. 49
    ryan c Says:

    Tommy Hanson for Shin Soo Choo! Get it done Wren!

  50. 50
    Sam Hutcheson Says:

    BJ Upton isn’t going to command much more than 15 mil a year. He’s not Carlos Beltran in his prime.

  51. 51
    Rusty S. Says:

    @4 – I like to picture Francisco in a tuxedo t-shirt.

  52. 52
    mravery Says:

    @50- That’s true, but it’s not 2005 anymore, either.

  53. 53
    justhank Says:

    FWIW, the guys on MLB channel were talking about the Phillies trading with the Padres for Headley. The package they mentioned is certainly something we could top.

    Getting Headley sure makes solving our outfield a lot easier and would be the perfect replacement for Chipper (All-Star-level switch-hitting 3B).

  54. 54
    Smitty Says:

    Silly Vandy.


    I am so glad Dooley is gone. I feel like we jsut won the national title!

  55. 55
    ryan c Says:

    40-man adds: Bethancourt, Spruill, Rasmus, Northcraft, David Hale.
    No Gattis…

  56. 56
    Alex Remington (Another Alex R.) Says:

    New thread.

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