It’s a little galling to get beaten by Sean Gilmartin — the guy we traded for Ryan Doumit, who put up -0.5 WAR in 100 games in 2014 and then promptly retired — though it’s slightly reassuring that none of this counts. In other news that doesn’t count, Ender Inciarte and Hector Olivera are both hitting quite well, which is better than them not hitting well. Also of note, Tyrell Jenkins made his spring debut and closed out the game in perfect fashion, notching four outs including two strikeouts.
(This is probably where I should point out that Dan Rosenheck of the Economist, who I know a little bit and who absolutely destroyed me in fantasy baseball last year, has done a fair amount of research to demonstrate that spring training stats do matter. Here’s the finding:
In every peripheral category, forecasts that included a finely calibrated dose of spring-training numbers outperformed ZiPS by itself. The impact was particularly strong for first-year players (“rookies”), for whom spring training is their first taste of proper big-league competition. After adding the peripherals back together to get an all-in-one value measure, incorporating spring training improved the correlation between preseason projections and final results from .578 to .593 for hitters (using OPS) and from .354 to .387 for pitchers (using ERA).
That said, it has been the official position of the blog since Mac’s days that You Should Not Pay Attention to Spring Training Stats, and that continues to be the position of Braves Journal, unless you are building a projection system or playing in a high-dollar fantasy league.)
Today we’ll face Robert Allen Dickey and the Blue Jays. Dickey’s 41 and the 2012 Cy Young Award winner has been just about exactly a league-average pitcher since the Mets shipped him to Toronto for Travis D’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard. We’ll have Aaron Blair again. Should be a fun one. This one’s only available on audio, via mlb.com.