Braves Journal, The House That Mac Built

Scarred, but smarter.

11 Jun

Mets 2, Braves phone it in.

(Insert subtly understated lede and/or atrocious pun here)

(Insert brief synopsis for those who haven’t read the box score yet here)

(Insert some short analysis here.  Be alternately optimistic and realistic.)

(Insert next game here)

(Insert played-out gimmick here)

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111 Responses to “Mets 2, Braves phone it in.”

  1. 1
    krussell Says:

    Excellent recap. Bring on the Nationals.

  2. 2
    sigmundc Says:

    A model recap, sir!

    Re: the rebuild, it’s rumored the Marlins might be big sellers at deadline and Christian Yelich might be available. Can’t but wonder what it’d take to get him–assuming Marlins would deal intra-division.

  3. 3
    Sean Q. Says:

    @2 Wonder if it would make sense for us to be both buyers and sellers at the deadline. Meaning, unload whatever veterans we can (read: Jaime) for prospects and package other prospects to acquire young talent (like Yelich) that’s locked up for a few years at least.

    Nice recap.

  4. 4
    sigmundc Says:

    Yes, exactly. And I will say that, no matter the deals made, the lineup would need–require–someone to be Matt Kemp, i.e. a true right-handed power bat…. maybe even Matt Kemp, actually. The core of the batting order would be Freeman-Right-handed power bat-Yelich.

  5. 5
    Rob Cope Says:

    We should totally both trade Matt Kemp and trade for Matt Kemp.

  6. 6
    krussell Says:

    So which pitcher are we drafting tomorrow?

  7. 7
    Rob Cope Says:

    So, pre-draft eve prediction: we’ll take someone that’s not on any top 10 of draft prospect lists. If you give Mueller a pass for health, our top 6 players taken are excelling at their levels. I trust Coppy to put together a yet another really deep draft class, and I don’t care if I don’t know the name of their top pick.

  8. 8
    Rob Cope Says:

    If nothing else, they’ve made players look good at their levels, which could pay dividends in tradeable assets. The top of the draft players may not all become major leaguers, but they’ve insulated their values quite nicely.

  9. 9
    sigmundc Says:

    @5

    As long we come out ahead in those deals–and I see no downside in that scenario– I’m solidly in favor of it.

  10. 10
    John R. Says:

    As lousy as our major league club is, I’d trade Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz every time it’s offered. So yeah, I’d trade Kemp. To be perfectly analogous, though, that means trading oldster Kemp for a minor league outfielder with star potential. Because we have little to back up Kemp in our system right now. (I see Dustin Peterson as an improvement over Markakis, not Kemp.)

  11. 11
    John R. Says:

    @6, I don’t know but he’s still in high school!

  12. 12
    Game, Blauser Says:

    Important update: the speedy dude who runs in the “Beat the Freeze” contest is a 26 year old former college track athlete named Nigel Talton, who has worked on the Braves grounds crew since 2012.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2017/06/11/who-is-the-freeze-meet-the-former-college-track-star-racing-braves-fans-between-innings/?utm_term=.19bea351e1e2

    @5 I doubt the Braves trade Kemp this season, even though they’d certainly be selling high if they did so. Who would play LF instead – one of the Petersons? Acuna? Likely they hold on, let him put up his 30 HR / 100 RBI and look to trade him this offseason if a suitable replacement plan is in place (“Hey fans, Dustin Peterson is finally ready! Remember him? Also Acuna is in AAA, so get excited for his mid-season callup!”). It’s a shame that front offices are much smarter now than they were 10-20 years ago… back then, Kemp would have been an easy sell.

    Someone also mentioned the Kimbrel trade last thread… that one didn’t work out great prospect-wise, but it was complicated by the fact that the Braves got return value in other ways – they salary-dumped BJ *and* got back a decent replacement CF in Maybin. I would rather the Braves had eaten BJ’s contract and traded Kimbrel for the best guy they could get (like how the Yanks traded Chapman for Gleyber Torres) but hey, fans are always happy to spend management’s money for them.

  13. 13
    krussell Says:

    Eating BJ’s money was the only sane outcome. Devaluing Kimbrel was just extending the blast radius of the original mistake. We desperately need new owners.

  14. 14
    Rob Cope Says:

    It’s a shame that front offices are much smarter now than they were 10-20 years ago… back then, Kemp would have been an easy sell.

    It also made him an easy buy for us. Goes both ways.

    I wish they could have traded Kimbrel without BJ somehow so that we could have seen what the Kimbrel’s portion return was. Of course, the deal would not have gotten done had we not packaged them.

  15. 15
    John R. Says:

    Didn’t we also get the draft pick from San Diego that we used for Austin Riley in the Kimbrel deal?

    As for Kemp, at the levels he’s hitting I think his value in late July would be much higher to a team in contention than it will be in the offseason on the general trade market. I would think most teams would wonder if Kemp would keep his conditioning up in the offseason.

  16. 16
    csg Says:

    I don’t see us trading Kemp.

  17. 17
    braves14 Says:

    I would make the other team offer us a deal we couldn’t refuse to trade Kemp. He’s signed through the 2019 season and the Dodgers and Padres are both paying some of his contract.

    I agree with those have said that he doesn’t look as bad in LF as the defensive metrics say. He’s better than Klesko.

  18. 18
    Smitty Says:

    Happy Draft Day!

  19. 19
    Stu Says:

    Happy Kyle Wright Day, everyone!

  20. 20
    blazon Says:

    Keston Hiura
    who he,will we be the procurer?
    more fun if we know zilch
    others, stunned, may allow us to filch.

  21. 21
    csg Says:

    Is kyle wright the “right” guy to select if available?

  22. 22
    Stu Says:

    He’s the best player in the draft, so yes. I am certainly biased, but I’ve been saying he’s the clear choice at #1 for over a year, and people like Law, Callis, and Longenhagen have finally come around to (or at least come close to) my way of thinking. :)

    If he’s available (and I think he will be, though it’s not clear what Tampa will do), the Braves will take him. Look for a reverse of last year, when they saved early to spend late — they’ll likely be spending above slot on Wright and will need to find savings later.

  23. 23
    Rob Cope Says:

    We’d be so fortunate for Wright to fall to 5th. While it wouldn’t bother me to go under-slot and have another deep draft, the best player in the draft falling to 5th would be incredible. Either way, I think it’ll be a really good draft.

  24. 24
    John R. Says:

    Assuming we take him, are we drafting Kyle Wright as a pitcher or as a hitter?

  25. 25
    Smitty Says:

    I thought Hunter Green was the best player in the draft.

  26. 26
    krussell Says:

    It’ll take 5 years to figure out who the best player in this draft is. I’ll be surprised if we take a college player though.

  27. 27
    DWonder Says:

    I cant wait to see what HS pitcher we draft…building around increasingly fragile starting pitchers is such a great strategy….It’s working so well for the Mets

  28. 28
    krussell Says:

    I’m not saying that a college player can’t be the best player available, just saying that the new regime (who are totally *not* the old regime, right? lol) seems like they’ve done a 180 when it comes to draft philosophy. Wren was looking for guys that could come up fast and help an already pretty good team. Thus the Jason Hursh type of picks. Not-Wren seems to be all about restocking the talent pipeline, with a high-ceiling lean.

    Wright is not that high of a ceiling, imho. But we shall see. I’ve been wrong once or twice.

  29. 29
    cliff Says:

    krussell,

    Actually, the Braves philosophy of high school players over college players has been predominant since probably the Bill Lucas era, EXCEPT for the Wren Period. Draft pitchers, shortstops, catchers, and centerfielders, in that order, usually. An exception to that was that the Braves were the absolute masters of the “draft and follow.” A lot of our “down period” has been after the elimination of draft and follow (I think Medlen was one of the last of those).

  30. 30
    Hate King Says:

    It seems like cutting an under slot deal at 5 is the type of strategy Belichick would employ. I like the idea of diversifying the bonus pool. But it would be hard to get excited if they took Huira, considering he can’t even throw a ball.

    My guess is they just take Wright or McKay if either one is there. If not, we’ll see a HS player on an under slot deal and an over slot deal at 41.

  31. 31
    krussell Says:

    That is very true cliff. I think when I was a kid the level of play in college ball was so much lower than now, so your high-end talent pool was primarily high school kids to start with. Now the landscape is a bit different. I’m not sure exactly how SEC baseball compares to professional minor leagues (rookie ball maybe?), but it’s certainly better than it was 30 years ago. And kids are realizing that going to college doesn’t necessarily place a hurdle in front of their pro aspirations. Parents too.

    Personally I’d take the money, but plenty of kids are taking the great educational opportunities and not even blinking. After all, you are only young once, and college can be pretty fun.

  32. 32
    braves14 Says:

    Speaking as someone with 2 college degrees, I would recommend a kid to sign if they got a good bonus. They can always go back to school if baseball doesn’t work out.

  33. 33
    Stu Says:

    I say this as one who’s closely watched him for three years (and closely watched Sowers, Lewis, Buschmann, Price, Gray, Minor, Garvin, Ziomek, Hill, Miller, Pfeifer, Selman, Beede, Fulmer, Buehler, Sheffield, Bowden, Kilichowski, etc. for three years before him): Wright is easily the second-best pro pitching prospect of the Corbin era. His ceiling is not low.

  34. 34
    krussell Says:

    I watched him for one game, where his team didn’t belong on the same field as OSU…so I will defer to Stu. If he’s the best player in the draft then taking him at 5 seems kinda improbable anyways.

  35. 35
    Stu Says:

    Depending on the scout to whom you’re talking, the SEC is comparable to either A+ or AA.

  36. 36
    krussell Says:

    No way it’s comparable to AA. I’ve watched UGA play a lot of games in the “Strickland era”, and that brand of ball is barely above north-metro-atl high school. They are flat out terrible.

    Weekend starters going at it amongst the top teams? Sure maybe. But there’s too much variance in the weekly schedule/lineups.

  37. 37
    Rob Cope Says:

    @33

    Lower ceiling than Price? Why are we even bothering?!

  38. 38
    braves14 Says:

    The Braves start most of their good college players at A or A+, FWIW.

  39. 39
    braves14 Says:

    Markakis!?!

  40. 40
    braves14 Says:

    Kemp!

  41. 41
    John R. Says:

    There goes Cakes and Kemp increasing their trade value! Gotta love it!

    Royce Lewis goes #1 to Twins.

  42. 42
    braves14 Says:

    Trea Turner = Braves killer

  43. 43
    John R. Says:

    Hunter Greene to the Reds at #2. There goes that fantasy.

  44. 44
    braves14 Says:

    MacKenzie Gore to the Padres at #3.

  45. 45
    jjschiller Says:

    So are we happy if we get Wright, another pitcher, but he’s supposed to be the best player in the draft?

  46. 46
    braves14 Says:

    Brendan McKay to the Rays at #4. Kyle Wright is there for the taking if they think he’s the best available.

  47. 47
    Remy Says:

    If Stu’s happy, I’m happy.

  48. 48
    braves14 Says:

    Braves pick Kyle Wright.

  49. 49
    jjschiller Says:

    Really wanted a guy who could swing it, but since we don’t have the bevy of picks we had last year, so we aren’t going to get like 6 top 50 players, I gotta be happy with the supposed best player in the draft.

  50. 50
    jjschiller Says:

    Listening to Smoltz talk about how great this kids mechanics are, and they freeze frame on his inverted w….

  51. 51
    braves14 Says:

    Folty has nothing tonight.

  52. 52
    Smitty Says:

    @36
    SEC= A+ easy

    Congrats Stu

  53. 53
    JohnWDB Says:

    Hard not to be pumped about Kyle Wright at #5

  54. 54
    Our New Insect Overlords Says:

    Wish Wright was available tonight. This is gross.

  55. 55
    Game, Blauser Says:

    @51 Folty looks like he’s got absolutely no feel for pitching tonight. He’s just chucking it up there and hoping. Location is bad, not executing breaking pitches, etc etc. Gross.

    On the other hand, glad to hear we got Wright at #5. I bet he moves quickly through the minors.

  56. 56
    John R. Says:

    @24, My bad, it was Greene that was the hitter/pitcher. Wright is solely a pitcher. I have that Wright, wright?

  57. 57
    Nick Says:

    So after all that hand-wringing, we get a player that many had as the No. 1 overall player in the draft. Boy, I sure do wish we’d intentionally lost at the end of last season! What a disaster actually winning games can turn out to be!

  58. 58
    braves14 Says:

    55 — All of his breaking pitches are up in the zone. Same thing happened in his last bad outing.

  59. 59
    Alex Remington (Another Alex R.) Says:

    Funny how that works. Congrats, Stu. Here’s hoping by the time he’s wearing an A, he’ll be on a contender. This division is eminently takeable as soon as Bryce Harper takes the money and runs.

  60. 60
    braves14 Says:

    Adams!

  61. 61
    Remy Says:

    Matt Adams! I love it when the Braves beat up on Strasburg.

  62. 62
    braves14 Says:

    That was a hell of an AB.

  63. 63
    John R. Says:

    Okay, Mike Foltynewicz! The Braves O has put you back into “He Knows How To Win!” territory. Don’t let ’em down!

  64. 64
    braves14 Says:

    I was for giving Ruiz a chance to see what he can do, but he looks overmatched.

  65. 65
    braves14 Says:

    Markakis has no arm anymore. That was pathetic.

  66. 66
    Rob Cope Says:

    To be fair, that wasn’t a throw meant for the plate. I don’t think he thought Taylor was running. On the other hand, derp.

  67. 67
    Stu Says:

    I’m almost as happy as VU folks, the Wright family, at the Braves’ scouts are.

  68. 68
    krussell Says:

    Thinking on it a bit more…you could say this validates the 2019 timeline. A high school arm would be 4 years away at least. Wright can be here in 2 if things go well. Please make it so.

  69. 69
    John R. Says:

    @67, “…like I mentioned above, don’t look for any Wentzes or Mullers this year. They’re all-in on Kyle…and he’s a great one to be all-in on.”

    So I can quit following the draft and go to bed now?

  70. 70
    Rob Cope Says:

    I definitely think the Braves made the Wright pick. He’s certainly something to Wright home about.

  71. 71
    Stu Says:

    They could’ve had Wright and at least one Wentz or Muller if they’d lost one more game. :)

    I’m sure it’ll still be a nice draft, but it’ll be based on good scouting finds and not on taking consensus first-round talents beyond the first round.

  72. 72
    JohnWDB Says:

    Man this is going to get old

    Re: losing just one more game, we could’ve done that by trading JJ, and we’d have a C+ prospect to show for it

  73. 73
    Rob Cope Says:

    When we traded for Touki, I didn’t think much of getting a prospect. That’s what years of winning had conditioned a Braves fan like me into thinking. But as this has gone along, I’ve seen the value in collecting loads and loads of young talent (and probably a little bit of prospect worship to distract from the big league squad). But man, with the way this season has gone, if we won in the 60’s one last time and secured another top-5 pick (and all of the better positions down the draft), then I could live with that. With all of the talent in the high minors, no dead weight contracts and hopefully little need to take on risky money like Dickey/Colon, this team could still have a strong 2018 even if we did that.

  74. 74
    TAD Says:

    Well Folty was serving it up on a platter tonight .. Well Inciarte struck out but good to see some emotion … well.we picked another pitcher .. when is this organization gonna realize we need bats .. just found out today we passed on Aaron Judge to pick the guy pitching now Hutch… really !! Great scouting dept

  75. 75
    JohnWDB Says:

    It’s funny how Jason Hursh was supposed to help us win now (then). What a fool’s errand it is to draft for urgent help in baseball. Lordy. You would think that 50 years of draft history would teach you. And Aaron Judge was the behemoth taken behind Hursh.

  76. 76
    krussell Says:

    Man, we gotta try sticking Adams in the OF at some point. I want that bat in there.

  77. 77
    krussell Says:

    When was the last time we used a high pick on a position player? Heyward?

  78. 78
    braves14 Says:

    Matt Lipka in 2010. Noah Syndergard was 2 picks later.

  79. 79
    Nick Says:

    @78

    And that worked so well that it’s no wonder we haven’t done it since.

  80. 80
    braves14 Says:

    Hursh looked pretty good tonight. He may yet be a good major league reliever.

  81. 81
    Rob Cope Says:

    Hursh would be such found money at this point. You can’t even see him from the end of top 30 lists.

  82. 82
    John R. Says:

    @81, Like that penny that gets stuck to your shoe after you step on some gum.

  83. 83
    Rob Cope Says:

    AJ Minter returned, and returned he did: 1 IP, 3 K’s. If he dominates AA again, they better call him up. We need a little more AJ and a little less EOF.

  84. 84
    JohnWDB Says:

    Matt Lipka. Wow. His ceiling was mediocre middle infielder.

    I’m convinced that Coppy gets this: you have to draft for ceiling. You can always sign marginal to mediocre guys later. You need as many chances at the premium talent as possible.

  85. 85
    csg Says:

    Hursh looks better than Luke Jackson IMO

  86. 86
    csg Says:

    No Chip you don’t have to “tip your cap”. Kemp can’t watch a fastball right down the middle there

  87. 87
    Rob Cope Says:

    Value for value, ‪Matt Adams to Cleveland for Bradley Zimmer. Who hangs up first?‬

  88. 88
    Nick Says:

    Is the second round tonight, too, or is it just the first and assorted compensation rounds?

  89. 89
    Nick Says:

    WOOOOOO!!! Tyler Flowers!!!! The Washington bullpen is still wet garbage, apparently!

  90. 90
    Remy Says:

    Flowers!

  91. 91
    JohnWDB Says:

    Man, that is the most fun I’ve had watching baseball in years. That tops Inciarte’s catch.

  92. 92
    Rob Cope Says:

    We should have signed Wieters.

  93. 93
    Nick Says:

    LOLNats

  94. 94
    braves14 Says:

    Braves drafted a HS switch hitting OF named Drew Waters at 41.

  95. 95
    braves14 Says:

    I think the ball is juiced this year.

  96. 96
    Dirt Napper Says:

    Baseball America has Waters ranked #23 in this class:

    In a thinner than normal Georgia draft class, Waters is the Peach State’s top position player prospect. He’s a dynamic athlete with an wide variety of tools and ways to impact the game. Waters has a plus arm and the plus speed underway to stay in center field. He’s strong and has a broad-shouldered frame at 6-foot-2. Waters’s offensive skillset is what really sets him apart. He’s a switch-hitter with legitimate power from both sides of the plate. He got off to a very strong start this spring and was launching home runs from both sides of the plate. Even when he doesn’t loft the ball over the fence, Waters can hit screaming line drives or hard ground balls that skip through the infield. He’s shown a bit of swing-and-miss, sometimes even against suspect competition, but he has the raw elements to develop into at least an average hitter with plus power. He turns in above-average or plus run times on the base paths, and scouts believe he will be a plus runner once he’s done maturing. Waters is committed to Georgia, but is expected to be selected somewhere on the first day of the draft. Scouts note his competitive personality and desire to shine on the big stage and in high-leverage situations.

  97. 97
    braves14 Says:

    Seems like another guy who many thought would already be off the board.

  98. 98
    JohnWDB Says:

    @92, you’re crazy Rob. Weiters? He would’ve helped us how, exactly?

  99. 99
    braves14 Says:

    Pretty sure he was being sarcastic, seeing as how Flowers just hit a 3 run homer.

  100. 100
    braves14 Says:

    Braves win!

  101. 101
    Rob Cope Says:

    Oh John…

  102. 102
    Nick Says:

    Well, that’s certainly a candidate for best win in an otherwise crappy year.

  103. 103
    Rob Cope Says:

    What a win.

  104. 104
    JohnWDB Says:

    @99, that would make sense, but it’s so hard to tell with Rob.

  105. 105
    krussell Says:

    Yeah that was great fun. You know the Nats are gonna overpay for bullpen help. I wonder if they’d ever consider dealing with us.

  106. 106
    csg Says:

    I’d send them Viz and JJ. Trea Turner would be a nice return

  107. 107
    beege Says:

    “Mike Trout,” Robinson [Waters’ HS coach] told HERO Sports when asked for a comparison. “Maybe Mickey Mantle. Of course he wears No. 7 like Mantle.”

    Surely a sober and unbiased assessment.

  108. 108
    Rob Cope Says:

    @104

    A compliment!

  109. 109
    JohnWDB Says:

    Here’s my prediction: Adam Haseley is the surest-bet position player in this draft. Phillies got a solid pick. At least 4 teams ahead of them will wish they had taken Haseley.

  110. 110
    Game, Blauser Says:

    @87 I seriously doubt the Indians would trade a top prospect with 6+ years of team control to acquire Matt Adams, a 1B-only guy with a career .778 OPS. Plus, they’ve got Santana at 1B and Edwin Encarnacion at DH, so it’s not like Adams would be a huge boost for their 2017 team even.

  111. 111
    cliff Says:

    recap up.

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