It may be a little too early about this, but Ken Rosenthal at least lit the pilot light on the trade speculation when he said that the Giants may be ready to deal some arms:
And yes, he does acknowledge that Bumgarner and Smith might be dealt closer to the deadline. If that’s the case, then this proposal doesn’t make sense. Were the Braves to trade for Bumgarner now, they would be getting about 25 starts from him vs. maybe 12 starts if he were acquired at the end of July. Same with Smith. Accordingly, 25 starts of Madison Bumgarner, logically speaking, should cost a lot more than what he would cost at the deadline. You’d be getting him for almost a full season.
Both pitchers are going into their walk years. Bumgarner is at a modest $12M salary for 2019, and Smith is making $4.25M in his last year of control. So both pitchers would simply be rentals. That’s another thing to be taken into consideration.
Regardless, with many bullpens in disrepair, and Bumgarner easily predicted to be one of — if not the — best starting pitcher available at the deadline, teams will be lining up to acquire both in a package deal, especially considering the amount owed.
What Gets a Deal Done?
It’d be extremely difficult to part with any of our elite pitching prospects for a rental, even two. So while Mike Soroka, Touki Toussaint, Kyle Wright, and Ian Anderson would undoubtedly be a coveted headliner for any deal, I’m assuming that AA is simply not willing to deal any of those. I’d also speculate that Cristian Pache is off-limits as well.
This would be obviously the hardest but conceivable talent to part with. But other teams will be willing to deal someone with Riley’s value to land these two pitchers, so I don’t think you’re getting a deal done not including Austin Riley
Of all the non-elite pitching prospects, Wilson is the most traceable. Until something changes, Kolby Allard is worth more to us than another team just to simply see what’s gong on with him. Same with Luiz Gohara. Joey Wentz and Kyle Muller aren’t yet at a point where there value can really take off, though that could change by the summer. Wilson simply makes the most sense as a player another team would like but we’d be willing to part with.
I like deals where, if you’re giving out grades for players, you’re essentially trading an A, B, C, and D player. Tarnok has just enough potential but still unproven to be the C player in this deal. I’d be happy to deal him off as the third-best player in a deal for these guys.
Since the Giants would be looking to add pitchers immediately to their pen, Webb makes sense as someone they could plug in there and see if he has anything. And for a contending team, we just have too many pitchers we’re trying to see whether they can work for us. Let them go do that for a team not looking to contend. And if Webb becomes a strong reliever, then good for the Giants.