Yesterday, I scoured the fence-straddling teams for players that they might consider parting ways with in a “you help me, I help you” type of trade. Today, I’ll take a look at one of those teams and grab 2 guys that I think could really help out the Braves this year, and one, for next.
Matching up with the Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks are sitting at a cool 51-50 right now. That puts them a miniscule 2 games back from the 2nd Wild Card. However, there are 4 teams that are ahead of them: Nationals, Cardinals, Phillies, and Brewers. If the Diamondbacks are being real with themselves, they’ll come to the conclusion that it’s very unlikely to happen this year and they’ll look to keep most of their core together while adding to that core for the next run.
Should this happen, it could open the door for the Braves to pounce on 2 targets that would aid in their quest for a World Series run.
Greinke is doing what every pitcher that wants to keep a job in the big leagues should do, and that is to adapt without dependency on velocity. At 35 years old, Greinke’s 3 year sample is every bit as good as almost every 3 year sample in his career and he’s doing it with a fastball that clocks in below 90 on a regular. That’s awesome, but what’s not awesome is the amount of money Greinke is owed. And as quirky as Greinke can be, his money distribution is equally quirky. Here’s a breakdown from Braves Option Guy:
The idea to make this happen: Have Diamondbacks pay ½ of the deferred salary, which would bring down the total financial cost to ~85MM for 2.3 years. Assuming the Diamondbacks would want value for value and would project his future value to be similar to his current value, 2.3 years of Greinke is worth about 92 million dollars. That’s only a 7 million dollar surplus in value, but there’s no chance that the Diamondbacks would look at it that way. I think they’re going to want to get paid in prospects to equal that of the money they’re paying down, which is ~31 million. Add that to the cost and the Diamondbacks are going to be looking at getting 40, maybe 50 million in surplus value to deal Greinke.
After an abysmal run with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2018, Holland has rebounded to become an above average reliever again. While he might not move the needle as much as other targets, he can be firmly placed in the back side of the bullpen for the stretch. Considering his financial cost is ~1.5 million for the rest of the season and his value is, give or take, 5 million, it’ll cost more than a 3.5 million dollar value in return. My guess would be ~10 million which equates to a budding 40-45 FV prospect.
Breakdown: I don’t think Braves are getting Greinke without Waters or Pache, and for me, Waters is the one to go and Pache becomes the CFer in May of 2020. Both guys carry serious value, but allowing Ronald Acuna Jr to slide back to one of the corner OF positions greatly increases the team’s defense. Folty and Duvall are throw-ins (and, admittedly, sell-lows) in this scenario but it takes giving to get.
What’s your package for Greinke and Holland? Let’s hear your thoughts?