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26 Sep

Andruw: The Splits

Andruw Jones 2007 Batting Splits – Baseball-Reference PI

1. He’s sucked at home, he’s sucked on the road. He sucked in the first half, he sucked in the second half. He’s sucked against lefties, he’s sucked against righties.

2. Perhaps the most interesting parts of the general suckage are what Andruw’s done by count. For instance… As you know, Bobby likes to turn his hitters loose 3-0. Andruw has not put a 3-0 pitch in play this year. He’s had 35 PA in which he’s gone 3-0. 12 times the next pitch was a ball (including four IBB). 23 times he either took for a strike, swung and missed, or fouled the ball off. He’s hit only .077, with no extra-base hits, in ABs after starting 3-0.

3. Andruw has, for his career, been great when putting the first pitch in play, hitting .347 (in over 1000 PA) and slugging .702. This season, he’s hit .247 and slugged .545.

4. He’s hit generally well on one-strike counts, from 0-1 to 3-1, better than on no-strike (or two-strike) counts. I don’t know what this means.

5. His best month was July, a fairly typical .263/.370/.566. He hit .263 in August, too, but with much less power and many fewer walks. His other months have been uniformly terrible, except for June, which was a beyond terrible .143/.211/.276.

6. Andruw’s line against power pitchers is awful, .168/.258/.306. This may indicate that his bat is slowing down, and that this is not just a seasonlong slump but a real change in ability.

69 Responses to “Andruw: The Splits”

  1. 1
    Stu Says:

    That first one pretty much sums it up, doesn’t it? Let’s not commit $75MM to him. Please.

  2. 2
    Ron Says:

    Those stats in #2 are mind boggling. As for #6, it’s been reported over and over that he has had significant arm injuries that have affected his swing. At one point he was going to get an MRI then suddenly and mysteriously didn’t. If he really was injured (perhaps even seriously), then that would explain his offensive offense this year. But whatever the reason is, the Braves shouldn’t offer him anything other than a 1 year deal at his current salary. Since he’ll surely be able to find some other team willing to gamble that he’ll return to form and pay him more than that, he’s gone.

  3. 3
    csg Says:

    #1 and #2 sum it up, Brandon Jones couldnt be worse, bring him up. Maybe Andruw needs to go away from that wider stance. Its not working

  4. 4
    Marc Schneider Says:

    It would be interesting to know if there are any historical precedents for a guy having such a dropoff in the middle of his career and then returning to his previous performance the next year. It’s not that unusual for even superstars to have a relative down year (e.g., Mickey Mantle in 1959)and then bounce back, but Andruw’s year has been so bad that it’s hard to fathom. I suspect that at least part of the dropoff is due to injury but I think it is real gamble to assume he will bounce back. More significant to me is that this isn’t just a one-year drop but really began last year although obviously this year is much more dramatic.

  5. 5
    csg Says:

    what did Andruw hit in the 2nd half last year. I dont think it was good and his arm wasnt a problem then

  6. 6
    Marc Schneider Says:

    Nice to know that the ESPN analysts are really on the ball. According to Jayson Stark, talking of the Braves: “Their bullpen has pitched great since the return of Octavio Dotel and the call-up of Manny Acosta.”

    Yeah, that Dotel has been a real workhorse, hasn’t he?

  7. 7
    ububba Says:

    While I’ll admit that Dotel’s 4 Ks in 1.1 IP is outstanding since his “return,” it hardly merits mention.

    This, unfortunately, is another sad case of a writer not doing his homework.

  8. 8
    Another Alex R. Says:

    Sadly, Jayson Stark’s homework tends to consist of hitters-do-the-darnedest-things columns, with very little else left in his docket.

  9. 9
    Sam Says:

    Journalists get lazy.

  10. 10
    Hate King Says:

    Mostly just Oklahoma journalists though, right?

  11. 11
    Sam Says:

    Yep, especially Oklahoma journalists.

  12. 12
    ububba Says:

    The OSU coach should be embarrassed, not the columnist.

  13. 13
    Stu Says:

    They should both be embarrassed.

  14. 14
    Sam Says:

    The impression I have is that the Oklahoma media, OSU is the crazy relative in the attic that no one talks about unless they’ve made themselves noticed.

  15. 15
    Hate King Says:

    I was commenting more on the entire situation, not picking a specific sides. They are both jokes, though.

  16. 16
    ububba Says:

    I’m sorry, but college athletes aren’t immune from criticism, no matter how loud that coach yells.

  17. 17
    Brian J. Says:

    At least you can’t accuse him of padding his stats in blowouts- he’s hitting .184 when the game’s margin is 4 runs or more.

    I did find a nontrivial stat that makes Andruw almost look good- he hits 289/ 392/ 467 against groundball pitchers. That’s not great, but that’s someone you can bat 3rd or 4th without cringing.

  18. 18
    Stu Says:

    They aren’t immune from criticism, but I’d like to think certain forms of personal criticism are off-limits. Maybe a failing of the media or society as a whole, not just that reporter—either way, what she did stinks.

  19. 19
    Stu Says:

    Continuing:

    Bobby Reid shouldn’t be compared to a chubby 10 year-old like Gundy stupidly did, but I don’t think the sorts of things considered fair game for political figures and celebrities—the people really intentionally putting themselves out in the public eye—should be so considered for a 20 year-old college athlete.

  20. 20
    Sam Says:

    There’s a line you have to draw somewhere, then.

  21. 21
    Stu Says:

    Ya think?

  22. 22
    Sam Says:

    No, I don’t think that, I just said it to say something. ;)

  23. 23
    Brian J. Says:

    Lineups:

    Braves:
    Johnson 2b
    Renteria ss
    CJones 3b
    Teixeira 1b
    McCann c
    Francoeur rf
    AJones cf
    Diaz lf
    Hudson p

    Phillies:
    Rollins ss
    Utley 2b
    Burrell lf
    Howard 1b
    Rowand cf
    Dobbs 3b
    Werth rf
    Ruiz c
    Lohse p

  24. 24
    Sam Says:

    Hooray! It’s our favorite lineup!

  25. 25
    Mac Thomason Says:

    I think I’m going to bed early tonight and will recap in the morning. I’m not really that lazy, it’s been a long day.

  26. 26
    ububba Says:

    Stu,
    It was a tough column—no question. But it’s a column that, as far as I can tell at the moment, was not inaccurate in terms of its facts. (Gundy still refuses to detail exactly what part of the column was inaccurate.)

    If anyone doesn’t like the conclusions the writer drew, that’s fine. But having covered high-stakes college athletics myself, I can tell you that we’re never going to agree here. But that’s fine, too.

  27. 27
    Mr Swings @ Everything Says:

    Having a great defensive reputation is swell.

  28. 28
    kc Says:

    Just when you think there is hope, Lohse will throw a shutout tonight….

  29. 29
    Adam M Says:

    This game is almost worth it to hear Steve Phillips do things like (1) fail to mention Utley when discussing the ways the Phillies get power from non-corner positions, and (2) deny park factors in Philadelphia and Cincinatti. Eight more innings…

  30. 30
    Mr Swings @ Everything Says:

    Gosh I sure hope the Braves lose tonight so we can all give up and start talking semi pro football again.

  31. 31
    Rufino Linares Says:

    At least the Braves finally hit Chase Utley. Mac must be happy!

  32. 32
    Murphy3Ever Says:

    chipper! argh

  33. 33
    'Rissa Says:

    That Chipper error really hurt…

  34. 34
    Stu Says:

    I’m thankful that my hope didn’t last very long.

  35. 35
    Murphy3Ever Says:

    oh well. i guess i’ll just be cheering for the brewers at miller park thursday night and not as much against the padres…

  36. 36
    'Rissa Says:

    The Braves are going to lose this game. I actually get to watch it, and that is a sure way to get them to lose (why do you think they’ve been winning recently? Yep, I haven’t been able to watch…) There will be no more hope after tonight. Promise.

  37. 37
    Adam M Says:

    If/when the Braves get eliminated, there’s a part of me that wants the Phillies to fail, even if it means the Mets get in… I guess I have just lived too long with these idiot fans who boo everyone and everything that they can’t fully understand. I don’t know… jeez, who to hate more?

  38. 38
    Josh Says:

    I’m in love with Mark Teixeira.

  39. 39
    Adam M Says:

    Did Steve Phillips just accuse JS of tampering with Tom Glavine?

  40. 40
    Rufino Linares Says:

    I’m not the most optimistic person in the world, but I would like to point out that it is now 4-2, and that no lead is ever too safe in this ballpark… My apologies to those who would prefer to relinquish hope, it just seems a little early in the game to be doing so!

  41. 41
    'Rissa Says:

    I truly think the Braves could come back and win this game. It’s just not going to happen unless I turn the TV off…

  42. 42
    Ben Says:

    I’m lucky enough to get to see Craig Biggio’s next to last game ever on Saturday in Houston, and probably unlucky enough to watch the Braves play their next to last game of the season with no playoff hopes…but I’m really trying to be optimistic.

  43. 43
    Dan Says:

    Chipper’s throw really hurt.

  44. 44
    Tom H. Says:

    Agreed. As did Hudson’s bobble (and the 2 out hit).

    Looks like the vets are letting us down tonight.

  45. 45
    Dan Says:

    I think the Braves have seen all of 12 pitches these past two innings (6, 7). They’re all hacking away.

  46. 46
    ububba Says:

    I’d say it’s time for another unlikely comeback.

    Ben,
    I’ll be at the Saturday game in Houston, too.

  47. 47
    Mr Swings @ Everything Says:

    Looks like Tim doesn’t want to pitch on Sunday.

  48. 48
    Brian J. Says:

    I should’ve known better than to believe… at least the Mets are embarrassing themselves.

  49. 49
    Mr Swings @ Everything Says:

    Moylan will get’em next year!

  50. 50
    Wryn Says:

    Ah well, it was fun while it lasted.

  51. 51
    Brian J. Says:

    And that’s it.

  52. 52
    'Rissa Says:

    Now that our chances are shot, what do you guys think the team will do for the last four games? They’ve been riding high for the last couple of weeks, but this might have been deflating enough that we won’t be able to pull anything together. I do hope Smoltzie gets the win tomorrow, and that Chipper stops trying so hard to hit and just relaxes.

  53. 53
    Michael Says:

    Marc@4,

    Don Baylor’s 1980 stands out, though I assume there were injury issues there based on his Games played that year.

    Similarly Dusty Baker’s 1976.

    Heck, Reggie Sanders’ 2000.

  54. 54
    ububba Says:

    Tonight’s game was just a drag. Not much to say, except that it sucks to be in a position where you can’t lose the rest of the season.

    Very small consolation: I get to watch the Mets spit the bit. Slain again by the Nats. With 9 losses in their last 13 games, the Mets look to be on the verge of a historic gag-o-rama.

  55. 55
    Brian J. Says:

    Mets lose 9-6. Swept by the Nats.

    And I feel better. Misery does love company.

  56. 56
    SomeYahoo Says:

    Tough night for Chipper. So little has to go wrong in this game to suffer a loss. Imagine if we come up a game short and the playoffs would have potentially hung on just a single error by an otherwise unflappable 3b-man. That’s why it’s the greatest sport and also the most maddening.

    I don’t even feel bad. I was just happy with my delusion for a few weeks and I think it’s time to get excited about next year’s edition, because if we don’t get hammered by injury again, we’re going to have the best NL team, top to bottom. I see us winning 95-100 games without injuries. We’re in a good place.

    I’ve looked at these last two seasons, really the last 4, as reloading years. We’re infusing youth to make another run at the WS. The Braves are a great organization and it’s good to know that even in the losing years we’re looking forward to another season that will be brighter, more successful. Let’s go out tomorrow and wreck the Phils hope of winning getting in.

  57. 57
    Kerry B. Says:

    Well, just dropped in to say that was an interesting 24 hrs. Going from “Might be able to pull off the comeback”, to “Oh well, summer killed the Braves again” is never fun.

    Personally, I’d rather see the Phillies in than the Mets. Actually, I’d rather see the Braves in over both, but that’s sadly not an option here.

  58. 58
    Frank Says:

    Keep hope alive–just kidding.

    The August Braves made an appearance–sleepwalking offense, wasted outs on the bases (Renty thrown out stealing), and defensive blunders.

    An oddball question–any chance that AJ’s birthdate is off? He came up at 19 or so but seems to be hitting the wall (see #6 on Mac’s list) at a young age. Several international players (wasn’t Furcal one?) were found to have false ages so maybe AJ did too. I don’t think it’s likely but I’m just wondering.

  59. 59
    urlhix Says:

    Oh well. It’s been a fun last few games. Hopefully (whee) we can take that looseness into next year. With some relatively minor tweaking, this team has the chance to do great things next year.

  60. 60
    urlhix Says:

    @#57,

    It may be that he simply bloomed early and is now done, physically.

    It happens.

    Someone else mentioned that his explosive batting style and balls-out defense has contributed significant wear and tear over the years. This can’t be stated enough.

    While he still roams the outfield with grace and confidence, I do think AJ might just be done offensively. No longer able to catch up to the pitches he sees, too stubborn to change his approach. Not a recipe for success.

  61. 61
    mraver Says:

    Well, that was more like it. :-)

    Still, 3-1 the rest of the way gives us 86 wins. Let’s shoot for that!

  62. 62
    Brian J. Says:

    What do you drink to celebrate mathematical elimination? Whatever it is, make sure you have some in your fridge tomorrow.

    Still, as has been noted, it’s been a pleasant surprise to feel so almost-hopeful in the last week of the season. I missed it when it didn’t happen last year.

  63. 63
    Dan Says:

    So let me get this straight now:

    1. Padres lead the wildcard
    2. Rockies and Phillies 1.0 game back in wildcard
    3. Mets 1.0 game lead in division over Phillies
    4. Mets, if they fall out of the division lead, are currently tied with the Padres (both 87-71) and 1.0 ahead of the Rockies for the wildcard.

    I say roll over tomorrow and help stop the Mets from getting into the playoffs!

  64. 64
    Dan Says:

    So…if the Mets lose tomorrow and the Padres and Phillies both win, they’d be at least for that time out of the playoffs right? Since the Padres would have the better record and the Phillies would have the edge in the season series.

  65. 65
    kc Says:

    The Mets suck so bad that they don’t deserve to make the playoff like the Braves. I am actually pulling for the west coast teams now, especially the Rockies. They have won 10 straight…TEN!!! That’s what the Braves supposed to do!!!

  66. 66
    Marc Says:

    I knew we would lose this game because Hudson was going. If there is one thing you can count it’s Hudson blowing a big game.

  67. 67
    kc Says:

    Marc, that’s not totally fair. He was undo by Chipper’s error this time.

  68. 68
    billy-jay Says:

    If there’s one stat that really stand out this year, it’s this one:

    The Braves have lost every single game this year in which they were outscored.

    I think that says it all.

  69. 69
    Coop Says:

    JS’s mantra for the off-season: Starting pitching. Starting pitching. Om.

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