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20 Nov

Where Do We Go From Here? 2012.4 Other Starting Pitchers (by bledsoe)

A few days ago, I previewed the likely top five in the Braves’ starting rotation on Opening Day. Here are other starting pitchers who could see action later in the year:

  • Brandon Beachy
    Stats: 81 IP, 5-5, 2.00 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 68 K

    From Opening Day, Brandon Beachy bettered his fantastic rookie campaign by pitching like a true ace (he led the N.L. in ERA when he went down) before suffering what was initially reported as a partial tear in his right elbow. That bad news only got worse when Dr. James Andrews became involved. On June 21, 2012, Beachy underwent “successful” Tommy John surgery (uh, how do they know?) and the clock started ticking. Twelve months is an aggressive schedule. 14 is more conservative. An August return is likely, and he will displace whoever is stinking up the joint (cough..Hanson). Having a guy like Beachy coming back mid season is an unbelievable luxury. Fantastic stuff. He and Medlen should be the Braves 1 and 2 starters for some time. Eligible for arbitration first time in 2014.

  • Randall Delgado
    Stats: 93 IP, 4-9, 4.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 76 K

    Began the year with the fifth starter job, beating out the favorite Julio Teheran, and didn’t embarrass himself. He was, however, inconsistent, and that was enough to send him back to Gwinnett to make room for Sheets. Won his first two, lost his next five. He’ll be back, but possibly not with the Braves. He throws 94, and he’s still young and green. The few starts of his that I saw showed a very promising but immature pitcher subject to either lapses of concentration or bad luck, or both. He can play. I think he projects as a No. 3 starter with a high propensity for strikeouts. He is, however, Trade Bait for the Brave’s other needs, i.e., a stud outfielder. Of the two young guns, I still would rather have Teheran stay and deal Delgado. Thank God Ryan Dempster is a freaking crybaby.

  • Jair Jurrjens
    Stats: 48.1 IP, 2-3, 6.89 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 19 K

    What happened to Jair? Jair was one of my favorite recent Braves, but arm troubles have been his chronic bane and now seem to have ended his career. Another 26 year old–I just can’t see him coming back. He did not fare well at Gwinnett either, going 4-6 with a 4.98 ERA. Nonetheless, if you want hope, here it is: Jurrjen’s ERAs since 2008 are 3.68, 2.60, 4.64, 2.96, 6.89. If the pattern held, 2013 would be another solid year for JJ. I don’t think it will. I expect him to be non-tendered and sign with a small-market club. I wish him well, but he’s not in our future.

  • Julio Teheran
    Stats: 6.1 IP, 5.68 ERA, 0.947 WHIP, 5 K

    Hey–remember this guy? He was considered the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. In spring training the fifth spot was considered his to lose, and lose it he did, to Delgado. I wrote up Teheran separately, and you can read that here. Suffice it to say that one bad spring training in 2012 does not erase that promise. He’s a stud hoss, and he will be very, very good very, very soon. I expect him to join the rotation for good in 2014 when Hudson, Hanson, and/or Maholm leave. He will fulfill his promise, I would wager. I hope he doesn’t get dealt for an outfielder, but it is a distinct possibility.

  • Once again, the Braves suffer from an embarrassment of riches in starting pitching. In the glorious 90s, the then-current wisdom was that the Braves pitching system was due in large part to the tutelage of Bruce Dal Canton at Myrtle Beach (some said Johnny Sain too, but he wasn’t there that long). While Bruce is no longer with us, we continue to produce pitchers, pitchers, pitchers. It has to be the scouting. The Braves have long relied on non-Moneyball, old fashioned scouting eyes to draft young pitchers, usually out of high school, and starting inculcating them with the Braves pitching philosophy before they get “ruined” by college coaches.

    The Braves’ scouting-heavy philosophy is one that the Nationals have adopted wholeheartedly; the lightning rise of that team is directly related to their willingness to pay scouts for their shoe leather (and pay the prospects the scouts find whatever money Scott Boras asks for.)

    My WAG for the future?

    Braves 2014 Rotation

    1. Beachy
    2. Medlen
    3. Hudson (one year deal)
    4. Minor
    5. Teheran

    Braves 2015 Rotation

    1. Beachy
    2. Medlen
    3. Teheran
    4. Minor
    5. Sean Gilmartin

    Post scriptum: First, thanks to my son Alex for his contributions to this analysis. I am very fortunate to have someone to pass the torch to that my grandfather passed to me in 1967. (He actually was an usher at Atlanta Crackers games. My grandfather, not Alex.) Alex has been reading the Braves Journal religiously (Braves are considered a religion in my house) since he was nine, and he loved Mac’s humor and insights, frequently quoting to me Mac’s latest bon mots. I think Mac probably formed his view of the Braves as much as I did, and probably molded his sense of humor as well. We usually refer to the Braves by whatever nomenclature Mac awarded them: the Lisp, the Vulture, O’Ventbrel, etc.

    When Mac died, I was unable to formulate the proper words to join the online mourning. I knew Mac since the mid-90s, online in Compuserve (!) baseball forums, and when he started Braves Journal, I was one of the first readers he invited to the new site. I never met him in person, though I repeatedly invited him to attend Nats-Braves games that he was never able to make. I should have posted something at the time of his death, but just couldn’t bear to do it.

    This is a great monument to Mac’s life. I honor AAR and others for keeping the flame alive.

    96 Responses to “Where Do We Go From Here? 2012.4 Other Starting Pitchers (by bledsoe)”

    1. 1
      justhank Says:

      Just an extraordinary piece, bledsoe. Thank you.

    2. 2
      Smitty Says:

      Great write up

    3. 3
      DJ Says:

      Excellent analysis and an even better PS.

    4. 4
      Mark Grogan Says:

      Outstanding!

      I often wonder how much of the wry, intelligent humor that runs through us regarding baseball and the Braves comes from listening to Ernie, Pete and Skip all those years. Notice I leave out Milo, as he didn’t have that as part of his calls.

      bledsoe, congratulations on having such a fine son, and teaching him well. The world is quite happy that I have only one offspring, a daughter. She has an appeciation of the game as an experience, but I don’t think she could help with a Sean Gilmartin evaluation, and don’t even think about Juan Jaime.

      I am quite ready for the stove to heat up around here. Can we count on the Mets to screw up the Wright negotiations? Is there third team we could involve to get the good Upton?

    5. 5
      Stu Says:

      Still wish we’d make a play for Greinke.

    6. 6
      csg Says:

      Would you rather have Upton/Ross combo….or trade for something like Cain/Hamilton or Fowler/Hamilton

    7. 7
      ryan c Says:

      Great writeup. Thanks for doing this, Bledsoe. On a side note, I think we will be seeing JR Graham in the rotation by 2014. He moved up to #1 on Sickels prospects list, will be 23 in January, and has a lot of upside.

    8. 8
      Sam Hutcheson Says:

      If you could get Fowler/Hamilton, you get Fowler/Hamilton.

    9. 9
      ryan c Says:

      csg, I like option 2, but I don’t think I like how much it will cost.

    10. 10
      c. shorter Says:

      3 — agreed. I was about to post a similar thought.

    11. 11
      Alex Remington (Another Alex R.) Says:

      By the way, hope it wasn’t unclear from context, but I am not bledsoe’s son; he has a son named Alex who will be doing a player writeup later in the offseason.

    12. 12
      JoeCraigMcMurtry Says:

      Thanks for the write-up bledsoe. The rotation in 2014 is potentially a world beater. But I don’t see Sean Gilmartin hanging around until 2015 without a spot in the rotation. He’s ready to help a bad major league rotation right now (read: Kansas City Royals). I think he either gets dealt this season or in the next offseason or he is somehow in the rotation in 2014, whether due to injury, Hudson not being brought back (IMO, likely, if he wants more than a one year deal), or because one or the other four is traded instead.

    13. 13
      Smitty Says:

      Here are your early canidates for the Tennessee job:

      Fisher, Golden, Strong, Mora Jr. and of course the long shot of Gruden (which I don’t think will happen)

    14. 14
      Stu Says:

      I think it’ll be Golden or Strong.

    15. 15
      Kevin Lee Says:

      Good job, bledsoe!

    16. 16
      Smitty Says:

      I do too. I think Golden will wind up getting it. I think Fisher will use UT and Auburn as leverage to get some upgrades at FSU.

      Mora is an interesting name to watch. He is only making like $1.3 million at UCLA.

      I think Strong is the fall back option. He is a good coach and I would be happy to have him. I think he winds up at Arkansas.

      I heard that Arkansas may have called in on Franklin and he wasn’t interested.

    17. 17
      Stu Says:

      Franklin’s not going anywhere anytime soon.

      As for Fisher, I think he winds up at Auburn. He knows he can’t win a championship out of the ACC.

      I’ll be surprised if Patterson doesn’t land the Arkansas job.

    18. 18
      csg Says:

      Rumor is that Jacobs wont fire Chizik. He may get another year.

    19. 19
      Smitty Says:

      @17

      I don’t think Franklin is leaving either, at least not this year.

      I could see Fisher at UT or Auburn. Fisher has a history w/ the UT AD.

      But CSG is right, it appears that Chizik may not be done.

    20. 20
      DonutMan Says:

      No way Chizik gets another year.

    21. 21
      Stu Says:

      Yeah, at least Chizik knows how to properly blackmail someone.

    22. 22
      Coop Says:

      Thank you, bledsoe, for the great words. Mac would be proud.

      I miss Mac. God bless Braves Journal.

    23. 23
      csg Says:

      Chizik has the pictures I guess. Not sure how Jacobs couldnt fire him, but the speculation is that he will return. As a bama guy, Ill be pleased with that.

    24. 24
      Nick Says:

      I am continually bemused that these horrible former Falcons coaches keep coming up in the UT job search. I’ve already had to deal with these fools once, why would I want to deal with them again?

      For the record, if I must choose a failed former Falcons coach, I’ll take Mora over Petrino simply because I wouldn’t even be able to look at the latter, but Mora’s pretty much Kiffin redux, and is out of his mind, to boot. It is possible that his particular brand of unhinged insanity will work in college football, though I’m not convinced. His first year with the Falcons, we went to the NFC Championship Game, and then went 8-8 and 7-9 the next two years and missed the playoffs in both despite good starts. Yeah, he has UCLA playing well this year, but will he be able to keep it together without unintentionally exploding everything with his batshit craziness? We’ll see.

    25. 25
      Smitty Says:

      @23

      I agree. I don’t think Mora will be the top choice. He is just a name that is getting some play. I don’t even think Petrino is on the list right now.

      This search has been pretty hush-hush. There are a ton of rumors, but only Dave Hart knows what is going down for sure.

    26. 26
      Bethany Says:

      @18 Jacobs should be the first person fired.

    27. 27
      AtlCrackersFan Says:

      I missed the transition to U. Tenn. coaching.

      Branch Rickey gets attributed 2 sayings which means he probably said neither but.

      “you can never have to much pitching” and “I’d rather trade a player a year early than a year late”

      While the Braves have generally not fared to badly in their trades of pitching prospects, I worry tremendously every time.

      The biggest error in the past decade or so is Adam Wainwright who has gone 80-48 for the Cardinals.

      Jason Schmidt would likely have better career numbers, in my opinion, had he stayed with the Braves as he’s gone 125-90 since leaving and actually posted a .500+ numbers twice with bad Pittsburgh teams.

      Kevin Millwood went a 94-106 post Atlanta

      Jason Marquis, essentially a .500 pitcher with Atlanta has gone 98-94 since.

      Those are the 4 ‘highly touted’ pitchers I remember trading away.

      John Smoltz epitomizes the risk, fortunately to the Braves benefit!

      My observation is that stud pitchers win 60-62% of their decisions. Wainwright has done that so far and it will be interesting how he does with another year removed from surgery. Schmitt is close despite spending 4+ seasons with Pittsburgh.

      Other numbers can try to compensate for playing for bad teams but…

    28. 28
      Mark Grogan Says:

      I should let it go, but I have no self control.

      Ron Reed has gone 66 and 52 since we traded him.

    29. 29
      td Says:

      I think Auburn will be wise not to fire Chizik this year. Several SEC teams will be shopping for a coach and quite frankly I don’t see a slam dunk candidate out there. If Auburn gives Chizik another year I think his chances of having a decent year next year are very similar to anyone else they would hire.

    30. 30
      justhank Says:

      td – I’d agree unless the smoke about Jimbo is true.

    31. 31
      Bethany Says:

      @29 I strongly disagree. The level of failure Auburn has achieved this year shouldn’t be overlooked. They are historically bad, and they had a relatively soft schedule. No SEC coach has been beaten by 17 or more points more times than Chizik has in his time at Auburn outside of Joker Philips. He has had three top ten recruiting classes and he has used all that talent to field the worst team in the SEC. He won the NC with Tuberville’s seniors and two amazing JUCO players. He cannot stay.

    32. 32
      mravery Says:

      To be honest, didn’t most every good SEC team besides, like, Florida have a relatively weak schedule? The bottom of the conference is just so bad. Once you get beyond the very good top teir of UF/UGA/USC/’Bama/LSU/A&M, the best team is Vanderbuilt. With apologies to Stu, that’s not because Vandy’s taken things to the next level. Now, I’m not saying most conferences can go 6 deep, but Alabama’s effectively played two good opponents and lost to one of them. How is it again that they’re in the driver’s seat (co-driver’s seat with UGA?) for the national title game?

    33. 33
      Stu Says:

      Well, we have taken things to the next level. It’s just that our previous level was zero.

    34. 34
      ububba Says:

      When the SEC stops being the league with the most NFL-ready talent and stops winning 65/70-percent of its bowl games (6-3 last year, 30-15 in the past 5), it’ll get less credit, and its schools’ teams will be treated accordingly.

      But until then, the question when evaluating top teams is always: How would [fill-in-the-blank school] do if it played an SEC schedule?

      When it comes to bowl season, you usually get your answer. Some do fine, but most don’t. That’s why the upper-tier of the SEC gets the nod in the (admittedly ridiculous) polls.

    35. 35
      jjschiller Says:

      Braves additions to the 40 man roster: Bethancourt, Zeke Spruill, David Hale, Cory Rasmus and Aaron Northcraft.

      40 man stands at 36 going in to Rule 5. I can’t readily find any controversial omissions who are eligible to be drafted.

    36. 36
      Johnny Says:

      Stu, nice season for Vandy after a tough start. Too bad they dropped Northwestern from their schedule. We are 8-3 and really should be 9-2 (the Michigan game ripped my heart out). Ah, the weakness of the ‘Big’ 10. Its strange that I have such a huge emotional investment in NU. I didn’t attend there and I have no ties to the school save for my daughter, who doesn’t give a whit about the athletics there. But watching those kids play their fannies off against some pretty good football programs (except this year) will suck you in.

      bledsoe, very nice writeup and touching post script.

      If I am Wren I listen hard if someone wants to give us a REAL outfielder for Teheran.

      Ok, I get it Juston Upton is Francouer (OBP wise) except he can play CF. Is that really worth 15 million for 5 years????? Remember its not the dollars its the length of the contract.

    37. 37
      Johnny Says:

      dammit I meant BJ not Justin

    38. 38
      Stu Says:

      Too bad they dropped Northwestern from their schedule.

      Can’t say I’m too upset about that. We finally have a coach who understands how a schedule should be made.

      Fitzgerald is a heck of a coach, though. Kind of a prick, but his guys play hard and with admirable discipline.

    39. 39
      cliff Says:

      jjschiller at 35,

      Curious who some of the other names might be?

      When I saw Hale was on the list, I figured they might not have many other good ones. He has a fairly high ceiling, but about 5% projection, form what I see in the stats and reports.

    40. 40
      mravery Says:

      @34-
      I generally agree. My only point is that this year, an “SEC Schedule” varies greatly in difficultly depending on how many of the “Big 6″ you have to play. Alabama rolled the easiest lot of the bunch, dodging every good team from the East and splitting their tough games within the West. Combine that with Michigan being awful this year and we’re left with the consensus best team in the SEC likely being relatively unproven. So at least in the case of Alabama, it really doesn’t seem like their schedule was any tougher than, say, USC or Oregon.

    41. 41
      mravery Says:

      @36- Just remember, BJ was 27 last year, so it’s not like a 5-year deal is really going all that far.

    42. 42
      csg Says:

      Auburn may have evaluated the coaching market and come way with a conclusion that its not worth paying the $10 mil buyout plus the assistants. If they got the sense that their best hires could be Strong or Malzahn then Id have to probably agree.

    43. 43
      Smitty Says:

      UT just returned $17 million dollars to the AD. This should help in the coaching search.

    44. 44
      Dusty Says:

      Our old pal Brayan Pena was DFA’s by the Royals. Could see ATL bringing him back to be the early season backup catcher until McCann is healthy.

    45. 45
      Alex Remington (Another Alex R.) Says:

      Anyone want to write up Christian Bethancourt, Zeke Spruill, David Hale, Cory Rasmus or Aaron Northcraft?

    46. 46
      ububba Says:

      #40
      Did USC or Oregon win at LSU? That’s not nothing.

    47. 47
      spike Says:

      Michigan, LSU, MSU, TAMU, and UGA in the SECCG seems a fair bit tougher that STAN (USC/UCLA) (OST/ND) – and USC not going to the Pac12 Title game, and Oregon needing help to do so.

    48. 48
      Adam M Says:

      I largely agree with mravery on this one–both the Pac 10 and Big 12 have pretty solid middle classes this season, whereas the SEC has a generally better top and lower bottom. I actually do think Alabama is worthy of being in the National Championship Game–if only because Oregon, Kansas State, Ohio State (if they qualified) have no more business being in it–but I also think it’s fair to question the strength of certain high ranking SEC teams’ schedules this season. It’s not the same SEC of the last few years. It will be again, however, and is still probably the best.

      On another note, I like this Jon Chait piece on the madness of the Big Ten’s expansion: http://nymag.com/daily/sports/2012/11/madness-of-big-ten-expansion.html

      (I still don’t know how to hyperlink in html format)

    49. 49
      Stu Says:

      TEXT

      Take out all the space except for the one between “a” and “href.”

    50. 50
      Stu Says:

      Well, crap. How about…

      [a href="HYPERLINK"]TEXT[/a]

      Turn the brackets into less-than/equal-than.

    51. 51
      Adam M Says:

      Arizona, Washington, USC, Stanford, and Oregon State is a legitimately tough schedule. And while Alabama has played a solid schedule, I wouldn’t say that Georgia has. And they too control their path to the championship game.

    52. 52
      Alex Remington (Another Alex R.) Says:

      Actually, you can do less than and greater than signs with an ampersand, the letters “lt” or “gt,” and a semicolon. So the code will look like this:

      <a href=”HYPERLINK”>TEXT</a>

    53. 53
      Stu Says:

      LOL, I said, “equal-than.” Replace that with “greater-than,” and you have somewhat-coherent instructions.

    54. 54
      DJ Says:

      While waiting for the hot stove to intensify….

      DJ’s SEC football coaching predictions:

      Kentucky: Butch Jones (or Sonny Dykes)
      Tennessee: Al Golden
      Arkansas: Charlie Strong
      Auburn: Gene Chizik

    55. 55
      ububba Says:

      #51
      Is Oregon State better than Mississippi State? Is Stanford better than Texas A&M? Who the hell knows?

      Are any of those PAC schools, including Oregon, better than LSU? I doubt it. They certainly aren’t as talented on the defensive side of the line.

      But, having to ask these types of questions is another reason why any voting for any championship matchup is plain stupid. There’s no way of knowing any of that stuff until 2 teams in question actually play.

      Back in ’07, for example, there were people who didn’t think Florida had a chance to beat Ohio St. in the BCS title game. Others didn’t believe Florida deserved to be in the game at all. “Their body of work wasn’t as impressive as Michigan’s.” (Some of us knew better.)

      So, with a 6-team tournament of conference champs, say, people could only bitch about seeding and which #7 team got left out. That kind of scenario would make sense to me.

      So, for the moment, I’ll hang my hat on the fact that any SEC champ will be favored in the BCS title game. (Vegas says Bama would be -10 vs. Notre Dame, while UGA would be -7.)

      As it relates to UGA…
      UGA got a bit luckier with the SEC expansion than Alabama. The result of the league dropping the Bama/UGA game was this: Georgia played at Missouri, while Bama hosted Texas A&M.

      But, the fact that Auburn & Tennessee—-2 regular UGA opponents with storied backgrounds—-went belly-up this year… hey, it happens. All you can do is beat them, and UGA scored a million points against them.

      At this point, if UGA were to run the table—-a tall order with that middle game, to be sure—-I don’t think anyone should lose any sleep over it. Their last 3 games would be against their biggest state rival/ACC Coastal Champ* (ahem), the defending BCS champ and the country’s only undefeated team.

      If they ever did that, no apology necessary.

    56. 56
      td Says:

      Big problem with the SEC this year has been the downfall of Auburn and Arkansas. They have traditionally been well above average. The other teams are pretty similar to previous years (Vandy is better, UT is worse, UK is about as bad as usual, …)

    57. 57
      sansho1 Says:

      Within a certain range of talent and performance, arguing over which is the better/more deserving college football team is just silly. The lack of common opponents, separate talent pools, and regional differences in style make any argument of the relative merits of Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame, etc. nothing more than a faith-based rabbit hole. This will be true regardless of what system is put in place, simply by virtue of the limited number of games played. I just root for my team.

    58. 58
      mravery Says:

      ubbuba- You’re right that TAM (is that what we’re going to call them? I was going with “A&M”, but I guess that could be vague) and LSU aren’t trivial, but Alabama hasn’t beaten UGA yet. If they do… then that’ll be two good wins for Alabama. My point is, right now they’ve only got one. And while beating LSU is probably more impressive than any single thing Oregon’s done, Oregon has beaten Washington, Arizona, and USC. This weekend they face Oregon St. Those four wins would line up with any four wins Alabama might have going into the SEC championship game. I’m not saying Oregon’s clearly better. I’m just arguing that Alabama’s not clearly ahead.

      And that UF has beaten the teams ranked 8, 9, and 13, is playing the #10 team this weekend, and their only loss is vs. the 3rd ranked team in the country. If someone from the SEC should be ahead of Oregon, it should be Florida. ^_^

      But regardless, let’s just all hope Notre Dame loses this weekend so we can get a good National Championship game.

    59. 59
      justhank Says:

      I’m hearing Auburn has serious internal dissension amongst its’ coaching staff. Could get ugly.

    60. 60
      ububba Says:

      #58
      Oh, Notre Dame vs. Georgia is my dream match-up.

      Worked out pretty well last time.

    61. 61
      desert Says:

      So I just got a research position in orthopedic surgery for the rest of this year and the coming summer. There is a basic lab portion and a systemic review portion. The systemic review portion is a study comparing the success rates of autografts vs. allografts in ACL repair. My principal investigator introduced the topic by asking if I knew anything about Chipper Jones and his ACL repair surgery in 2010.

      It’s gonna be a great year.

    62. 62
      Sam Hutcheson Says:

      The Aggies are usually referred to as A&M or TAMU.

      My personal favorite scenario is:

      1) USC beats ND (eliminates the Irish)
      2) UCLA beats Stanford (eliminates the Ducks)
      3) UGA wins out vs GT and Bama

      That would make the BCS National Championship game (in Miami) a rematch of GA/FL.

    63. 63
      Sam Hutcheson Says:

      Oh, 4) UF beats FSU

    64. 64
      ktbass Says:

      @62-63
      That sounds great to me.

    65. 65
      mravery Says:

      That would be funny because UF/UGA was probably the worst game of football I’ve seen this year. Just completely unwatchable. :-)

    66. 66
      Sam Hutcheson Says:

      Yes, it was terrible, terrible football. But if those four things happen, it’s the obvious alignment for BCS NCG.

      Other BCS hilarity that I’m personally pulling for: FSU has a let-down game in the ACC Championship and Georgia Tech somehow manages to steal a win there, sending a 7-5 GT team that was destroyed at home by Middle Tennessee State to a BCS bowl game.

    67. 67
      c. shorter Says:

      And a GT team that was whipped at home by a dumpster fire of a BYU team (ok, the defense is solid, but the O is putrid).

      Same BYU team that was one missed wide open receiver away from taking the lead on Notre Dame late in the 4th in South Bend.

      Yes, I’m bitter — if the coaches would put an average D1 qb under center, BYU would have had a much different year. Instead, they’ve stuck with an injured non-qb and they do things like lose to San Jose St last weekend. Wheeeeeeeeee….

    68. 68
      Bethany Says:

      I’m with Sam: I tend to root for the most chaotic scenario when it comes to the NC game.

    69. 69
      td Says:

      I could be wrong, but I really see no way that Fla makes it to the NCG, even if the 4 things happen above. 2 SEC teams playing in the NCG as a rematch was not revceived well last year and I just think they’ll try to avoid it at all costs this year. My guess would be GA/Oregon would play in that scenario. If Bama beats GA and the 3 other things happen above, I still don’t think we’ll see Ala/Fla.

    70. 70
      Sam Hutcheson Says:

      I got my second bullet reversed up there. Stanford needs to beat UCLA to eliminate the Ducks.

      If UCLA beats Stanford and Oregon beats Oregon State, Oregon plays in the PAC-12 championship game against UCLA.

      If Stanford beats UCLA then Oregon doesn’t play in the PAC-12 CG regardless – Stanford would play UCLA again in the championship game. I don’t see how a Ducks team that doesn’t make it’s conference championship game gets into the BCS NCG, though if the voters really wanted to avoid an SEC rematch in the NCG they could probably send Stanford instead of UF (all other things being equal.)

    71. 71
      Smitty Says:

      I think the Irish take care of Lane Kiffin this week and will play the UGA/Bama winner.

    72. 72
      mravery Says:

      IMO, the more interesting question is what if this type of thing happens next year when there’s a 4-team playoff? Could a one-loss Florida team get in ahead of a two-loss Georgia team that loses in the SEC Championship game? Is that really fair to Georgia? My guess is that the answers are, “Yes” and “No, but no one is really going to care.”

    73. 73
      justhank Says:

      Does the 4-team playoff start next year (I hope) or the year after?

    74. 74
      Nick Says:

      Well, at that point we’ll have a selection committee, who will hopefully be able to correct such injustices before they happen. But really, Florida is playing so badly right now that there’s almost no chance they beat Florida State, and there’s absolutely no chance that they do unless they raise their current level of play by a considerable margin. And if they do, then maybe they prove that they’re not really as bad as I think they are, and it’s less of a back-door situation if they make it in.

    75. 75
      Adam M Says:

      For what it’s worth, I’d really love to see an Oregon-Georgia game, regardless of whether it was the NCG. That would just be a great contrast of styles. If Georgia loses to AL, and Stanford beats UCLA, is that possible?

    76. 76
      ububba Says:

      #75
      If things break right for Oregon, I guess they could play in the BCS Bowl. But outside the BCS title game, the chances aren’t great.

      Due to conference bowl commitments (Atlanta, Orlando, Tampa–whatever those corporate bowls are called now), it’s very rare that an SEC school ever plays a PAC school in a bowl. (IIRC, UGA played Arizona in the Sun Bowl in the ’80s, and UGA played Stanford in the Astro-Bluebonnet Bowl in the ’70s.)

      If UGA loses to Bama, I guess they could play Oregon in the Sugar Bowl, but I don’t think the bowl would want Oregon. I’m hearing that they’re leaning toward Clemson because they “travel better.”

      A UGA/Clemson bowl game could be fun, but UGA also opens at Death Valley next year, so it would be a little weird.

    77. 77
      Nick Says:

      @73

      Year after.

    78. 78
      mravery Says:

      Aww. For some reason I had it in my head that it started next year. :-(

    79. 79
      Bethany Says:

      I forgot another reason Chizik has to be fired: The private security firm he needs to get players to behave. Those players don’t play for him. They don’t respect him. Auburn’s been working hard to keep Tim Cook involved on Campus, maybe he’ll cover Chizik’s buyout :P

    80. 80
      Sam Hutcheson Says:

      Assuming no major upsets, UGA will probably end up playing Michigan in the Capital One bowl.

    81. 81
      ububba Says:

      I get tired of playing Big 10 teams in those bowls–too much Purdue, Wisconsin & Mich St, anyway–but I don’t think UGA has played Michigan since the 1960s (one of Dooley’s great early-career upsets), so that wouldn’t be too bad.

      BTW, ticket prices for the SEC title game keep going up & up. Not quite Rolling-Stones-at-Barclays-Center prices yet, but it’s getting into that neighborhood.

    82. 82
      el_gato_grande Says:

      Folks on this board seem pretty certain that Charlie Strong would take any of these SEC jobs without question were he offered… I know it’s partially the Louisville fan in me speaking, but logically, I’m not quite so sure he’d jump, at least not this year. He seems, first off, to be an incredibly classy, heartfelt guy. He was so thankful to the AD (Tom Jurich) for giving him a chance, he cried at the press conference where he was introduced, and Jurich has committed to matching financially any offer Chuck would get. He was rejected by a couple SEC schools if I remember correctly, and if it’s true his being married to a white woman was a factor, he wouldn’t be quite human if he didn’t have a bit of a grudge about it. More importantly, he’s got a hell of a good team brewing–they were overrated this year and it showed against Syracuse, but there’s serious talent on that roster and it’s all still young. He’ll have a legit Heisman candidate in Teddy Bridgewater next year and a good shot to run the table. Granted, it will be in the smoldering wreckage of the Big East (the biggest thing working against him staying right now, in my opinion), but not sure why, after being such a notoriously classy, heartfelt guy who has really committed to the community and wanting to build something here–and legitimately building us back up from scratch (the smoldering wreckage Kragthorpe left behind), he’d leave right before his best team takes the field.

      If Arkansas really wants ANOTHER ex-U of L coach so badly, I’d bet they can get Ron Cooper for a song.

    83. 83
      Bethany Says:

      Oh, and Auburn is being investigated now. Just in case you needed any more reason to fire Chizik.

    84. 84
      justhank Says:

      Ah, UofL – the sports marketing firm that operates a community college.

    85. 85
      Coop Says:

      It’s easy to be thankful for this house that Mac built and all you wonderful people who live here in it.

      Have a bountiful, safe Thanksgiving, my non-related family. May peace and prosperity be yours.

    86. 86
      Alex Remington (Another Alex R.) Says:

      Amen.

    87. 87
      Rusty S. Says:

      Thanks bledsoe. I had a lot of ideas what I might say if Mac passed, but when the time came, it all seemed so insufficient.

      Maybe someday.

    88. 88
      Sam Hutcheson Says:

      Mac lived. Mac did that YouTube bit about Mike Hampton. Mac died. Dust in the wind, brahman. Dust in the wind. Love the ones you’re with.

    89. 89
      mark grogan Says:

      Mac 2011, Thanksgiving message: Every day is a gift.

      Happy Thanksgiving from Mark and Dee.

      This is a special group.

    90. 90
      RobBroad4th Says:

      I miss Mac too these days. Cancer sucks.

    91. 91
      ursusfidelis Says:

      With the Braves going full-court press on B.J. Upton, I read that the Twins and Denard Span might be a possible partner for the Braves.

      Assuming they’re able to land Upton, what do you all think about the possibility of then flipping Hanson + prospects to Minnesota for Span as a move to shore up the outfield, and making Martin the everyday third baseman?

      I’m asking both about the likelihood of it happening, and the baseball sense of the moves themselves.

    92. 92
      Sam Hutcheson Says:

      Upton loses value if he’s not playing CF.

    93. 93
      Smitty Says:

      Happy Thanksgiving. I am thankful for what Mac, the Braves and you all.

      Eat well

    94. 94
      jjschiller Says:

      DOB has floated those sorts of ideas on Twitter, saying that if they get Upton or Victorino for CF, then they would look to fill the leadoff spot with a LF.

      This seems wholly stupid to me. Why get an inadequate slugger, who is expensive because he can play CF, then get a a speedy CF leadoffy type, and stick him in LF?

      If we want Span because he’s a speedy leadoffy type, then we should get a big bastard in LF who can bash the goddamn ball.

    95. 95
      csg Says:

      Im not sure why the Braves dont put Prado back in the leadoff role but he should be considered. Hes been successful at it before. Thats if we dont get a Bourn, Span type player.

      Wren seems to get too focused on certain type players.

    96. 96
      Alex Remington (Another Alex R.) Says:

      New thread.

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