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24 Nov

Tim Hudson (by Smitty)

In a few years when people start reviewing some of the great trades of the John Schuerholz era, the Tim Hudson deal will be right near the top. In fact, it may even be tied with the Great Fred McGriff Theft of 1993.

In December 2004 the Braves sent Charles Thomas, Juan Cruz and Dan Meyer to the A’s for Hudson. A quick scan of the internet tells me that none of those guys is on a big league roster (but I hear the Marlins may be looking.)

In every season that Hudson has been healthy (he missed parts of 2008-2009 due to Tommy John) Hudson has won at least 13 games. I know wins aren’t the most important pitching statistic, but it shows how consistent Huddy has been.

Recently the Braves picked up Hudson’s $9 million option for the 2013 season. Much like Brian McCann, the Braves face a tough decision at the end of next season with Hudson.

There is no doubt that Hudson has been the Braves most consistent pitcher over the last three seasons. However, his velocity is dropping (down close to two miles per hour) and his groundball rate is going down even faster. According to Fangraphs, Hudson (an extreme ground ball pitcher) saw his groundball rate drop to just over 55%, his career average is 58.7%. These are bad signs going forward.

So what do the Braves do next year with Hudson? Going back to the McCann comparison, I don’t think they know. I think they will see what kind of season he has and go from there. This may be one of those cases where a player really wants to stay somewhere and will take a deal for less money. I am not sure Hudson can put up the same numbers as he has in recent history given he is 36 and his stuff is in decline. Plus, the Braves have a ton of young, cost controlled starters and not enough rotation spots for them.

I am not sure he will be worth $9 million guy going forward and if he has a solid season, pitching starved teams will offer him that much. I could see the Braves tossing him a two year, incentive laden deal for $5-$8 million per year, but no more. If Hudson just really loves playing in Atlanta, he may take it. However, I wouldn’t expect 200 innings and 16 wins out of him anymore.

Of course, we could move Hudson to the outfield. He did hit .216 this year, and that’s almost as good as Uggla (.218).

94 Responses to “Tim Hudson (by Smitty)”

  1. 1
    DWonder Says:

    Happy Thanksgiving, everybody. Hope it was filled with food and family, like mine.

    Yahoo Sports is reporting that the Royals are shopping their top OF prospect Wil Myers for a SP. story says they’ve talked to Rays, DBacks, A’s, & M’s so far…not sure why we’re not in on this yet.

  2. 2
    Sam Hutcheson Says:

    Yeah, if Myers is available the Braves should be offering Teaheran+ at the least.

  3. 3
    csg Says:

    Agree completely. Let them have their pick out of Teheran, Delgado, Hanson, Gilmartin, and/or Graham.

  4. 4
    Mike N. Says:

    Huddy is probably my favorite Brave right now. Would really hate seeing him leave.

    Have you all kicked your Dawg today?

  5. 5
    Sam Hutcheson Says:

    Details seem to suggest that KC wants major league ready pitching, so unless you’re willing to deal Medlen, I’m not sure they line up for the Braves.

  6. 6
    PaulV Says:

    Hudson had a good year coming off injury and with Pastornicky playing so much SS.

  7. 7
    td Says:

    I get the feeling that we’ll make a deal for someone like Myers for outfield or 3rd base – someone completely off the radar screen. My guess is one free agent sgent signing and one deal for an outfielder.

  8. 8
    JoeCraigMcMurtry Says:

    Unfortunately neither Delgado or Teheran have done anything in the Dominican to add to their trade value. Delgado has been a bit unlucky.

    Teheran: 7.07 ERA, 14 IP, 22H(!!), 11ER, 5BB, 9K.
    Delgado: 5.74 ERA, 15.2 IP, 15H, 10ER, 6BB, 15K.

    Given the way things went this year, especially for Teheran, I’m not sure what the point of having them pitch winter league was.

    Our hitters are all faring extremely well.

    Francisco: .380/.569/.949 in 72 ABs. But with a 24/6 K/BB. The slugging is real, the OBP a bit lucky.

    Gattis: .345/.520/.865 in 127 ABs, with a 19/10 K/BB and a low BABIP. Seems to have made the necessary adjustments against a higher level of competition than he saw at AA. Only reason to temper the excitement is that the Aguilas fans think his defense in left is frightening.

    Mejia: .368/.600/.968 in 145 ABs. The slugging is impressive (10HRs, 5 2Bs and 1 3B) but the numbers include a .345 BA and I am going to venture to guess that a .400 BABIP is not sustainable. Biggest caution flag: 42/4 K/BB. He could have value as a RH pinch hitter and 1B platoon partner, but I have a feeling the Braves are not looking to rest Freddie against many lefthanders.

    Bethancourt: .293/.359/.652 in only 39ABs. No power whatsoever (low BABIP and only 2 XBHs). But it is a small sample size and he is making plenty of contact (only 2Ks). He still easily makes into the top 5 in my list of prospects.

    Cunningham: .367/.421/.788 in 95 ABs for Hermosillo. 21/8 K/BB. Good showing for Todd, except on the dance floor: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcQtLxxwdv8

  9. 9
    timo Says:

    Hope you all had a happy Thanksgiving.

    And here is Jordan Schafer’s thought of the day:
    “Nothin sexier then a woman that takes pride in her body, works out, doesn’t let herself go when she has a man, n keeps it in tip top shape”

  10. 10
    Nathan Says:

    As Sam has said elsewhere, we need to be offering Hanson + Teheran for Wil Myers right the hell now. If we could convert some of this young pitching into another elite OF prospect somehow, that would be pretty amazing.

  11. 11
    Coop Says:

    30 minutes into the game, Dawgs are doing okay; but I hate the option.

    Do something brilliant soon, wren.

  12. 12
    ububba Says:

    Nice work, Smitty.

    Leonard’s Loser: Georgia Tech!

  13. 13
    Sam Hutcheson Says:

    Jordan Schafer is the most dislikable Brave I can remember in a long time.

  14. 14
    Mike N. Says:

    Well that was a fairly poor showing

  15. 15
    csg Says:

    Garrett Anderson, Jeff Francoeur, and Dan Kolb would argue with you Sam.

  16. 16
    Adam M Says:

    Nope, Schafer is definitely more dislikable than those guys. Well, maybe except for Kolb.

  17. 17
    Alex Remington (Another Alex R.) Says:

    Yunel Escobar.

  18. 18
    justhank Says:

    Not sure why Jordan needs to share his “Letters to Penthouse” with everybody …
    —————-

    Vandy’s football team will outscore their basketball team today. In the words of Ricky Ricardo, “Wha’ happ’n?”
    —————-

    If Gattis simply can’t play LF, where do we put him?

  19. 19
    Sam Hutcheson Says:

    If Gattis simply can’t play LF, where do we put him?

    In the AL for an OF.

  20. 20
    Sam Hutcheson Says:

    Anderson was just old and terrible. Frenchy was just over his head and miscast as a starter, much less a “star.” Kolb was a fat reliever who went downhill in a hurry.

    Escobar was equally douchey as Schafer, but at least had a couple of flashes of real talent to balance that out.

  21. 21
    Sam Hutcheson Says:

    For anyone out there still operating on the false assumption that the world is in any way just or fair, Jordan Schafer will almost certainly break the two million dollar mark in career earnings this year.

  22. 22
    Coop Says:

    Good job, Smitty. Thanks.

    Melky Cabrera was once a Brave.

  23. 23
    csg Says:

    Im not really sure how Auburn got this bad so quickly. Even as a Bama guy, I want to see your team competitive. Good news is this game right here, should get Jacobs and Chizik fired.

    Side note: ND better win tonight or the country better prepare itself for a Bama/UGA vs UF NC game.

  24. 24
    Anon21 Says:

    As Sam has said elsewhere, we need to be offering Hanson + Teheran for Wil Myers right the hell now.

    I guess I have no problem with the offer, but the Royals would never take it. Between Hanson and Teheran you’ve got maybe 3/4 of a major league starting pitcher. I think they’re looking for at least a whole one.

  25. 25
    Rob Cope Says:

    I’d say 4/5.

  26. 26
    Bethany Says:

    @23 I don’t want ND in the NC game. Ew.

    If Auburn gets it’s NC stripped on top of the complete destruction of the program because of Chizik, I am going to slash his tires, knock on his door, and kick him in the shins until the cops drag me away.

  27. 27
    mravery Says:

    What a weird game. I thought all of the penalties were going to kill Florida, but the defense stepped up one more time.

    Now I have to debase myself by rooting for Lane Kiffin. :-(

  28. 28
    Rusty S. Says:

    @5 – is Kansas City ready close enough?

  29. 29
    Coop Says:

    Sorry about the beatdown, Bethany. It reminded me of the South Carolina – Georgia game. The Gamecocks beat us like a drum. I expect Bama to treat my Dawgs in a similar fashion.

  30. 30
    ububba Says:

    #29
    Take the points.

  31. 31
    spike Says:

    Icing the kicker has got to be the dumbest football talisman ever

  32. 32
    mravery Says:

    Ugg. USC’s not winning this game…..

  33. 33
    mravery Says:

    Every time something “bad” happens to ND, I want to yell, “WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW???!?”

  34. 34
    ububba Says:

    I really want an ND/SEC title game, so I’m rooting for Notre Dame (and their star Mormon linebacker).

    But a UGA/Fla re-match wouldn’t break my heart either.

    So far, SEC 3-0 vs. ACC today. Let’s go, Cocks.

  35. 35
    mravery Says:

    Ugg. How can you not score the ball with five straight plays from the 1 yard line?

  36. 36
    Kirk H Says:

    @35 I think the Falcons know

  37. 37
    Gaz Says:

    Auburn deserved that. Roll Tide.

    That being said it is more fun when they are competitive but they needed to pay for 2010.

  38. 38
    Bethany Says:

    @37 Excuse me?

  39. 39
    kc Says:

    I guess we will find out where BJ Upton will end up sometimes this week. I am leaning toward not getting him, but we really don’t have much in the minor league to offer the other clubs to obtain a CF through trade. Not every club has Ed Wade.

  40. 40
    timo Says:

    Made the mistake yesterday in following Schafer on Twitter. Man oh man, what a moron.

  41. 41
    ryan c Says:

    Dodgers old TV deal- 40 million per year
    Dodgers new TV deal- 280 million per year
    ~Disgust

  42. 42
    kc Says:

    @41. And how much are the braves getting for their stupid deal?

  43. 43
    ktbass Says:

    @37 Easy Gaz.

  44. 44
    Sam Hutcheson Says:

    Lane Kiffin is an idiot of extreme degrees. You throw it to Lee twice; they interfere twice giving you stopped clocks and first downs incrementally closer. So of course you try to sneak twice and run out your own clock.

    Notre Dame has no business being in the NC discussion. They’re just not that good.

  45. 45
    Alex Remington (Another Alex R.) Says:

    Sad day, you guys. Luis Durango AND Felix Pie are both gone.

    http://www.talkingchop.com/2012/11/25/3686836/atlanta-braves-re-sign-hughes-and-mcgill-in-a-flurry-of-minor-league

  46. 46
    Stu Says:

    8-4 (5-3). Wow. Even this fanboy didn’t see that coming so quickly.

  47. 47
    spike Says:

    @44, ND may be in the NC game, but I doubt they will be in the NC discussion. Bama opened at +9, and folks expect it to go to +13. I grant that this is crowd driven, but it’s driven for a reason.

  48. 48
    spike Says:

    @45, you buried the lede – Catcher JC Boscan has signed with the Cubs.

    That is extremely surprising to me, although of little consequence.

  49. 49
    csg Says:

    Bama has to get past UGA before we can start worrying about the NC spread. Either one will handle ND.

  50. 50
    spike Says:

    UGA has played two good teams, got absolutely dominated by one one game and barely made it past the other. I am far from convinced they ought be in the NC discussion, for that matter.

  51. 51
    mravery Says:

    @47 Bama is +9 for the SEC Championship game? That’s absurd. If Alabama’s favored at all, it shouldn’t be by more than 3 IMO.

  52. 52
    spike Says:

    Bam is +9 against ND

  53. 53
    Trace Says:

    Well the team UGA barely made it past has the most impressive resume in the country with 4 wins over teams in the top ten. I think that counts for something. Also, blew out Vandy (8-4) and Ole Miss which now look like pretty decent wins.

    No doubt that Bama and UGA both benefited from their respective schedules (Did anyone really expect Auburn and Tennessee to be this terrible?) But I do think that UGA and TAMU are probably playing the best football in the conference right now. A&M reminds me of UGA in 2007.

    Looking forward to heading to the Dome to see a good game next weekend and then watching that team dominate Notre Dame in Miami.

  54. 54
    ryan c Says:

    Evidently Chizik just got canned.

  55. 55
    csg Says:

    Yeah give it a few days before Petrino finds himself back at Auburn.

  56. 56
    Bethany Says:

    I don’t think Bama is all that proven either. It’ll be an interesting game.

    Yep, Chizik is gone. Thank god. So, do they go with another good ole boy (Fisher) or a real stud?

  57. 57
    ryan c Says:

    Bowden says we are in a bidding war with two teams on Upton. I hope that’s over exaggerated.

  58. 58
    Jick Says:

    The current standings on B-Ref’s Elo rater:

    #964. Jason Heyward… #965. Earl Battey… #966. Martin Prado… #967. B.J. UPTON…

  59. 59
    csg Says:

    I honestly hope Upton signs elsewhere. If we get Upton then we are looking for a leadoff hitter to fill the LF spot. Id rather just pay Bourn, or trade for Span/Fowler, and then focus on finding a power bat for LF instead.

  60. 60
    csg Says:

    JimBowdenESPNxm JIM BOWDEN
    Greinke camp confident he will not only become highest paid RHS in baseball history but might even surpass the Hamels deal

  61. 61
    Bethany Says:

    @59 I agree. Between the two, I’d rather have Bourn.

  62. 62
    Coop Says:

    @ 59 and 61: Me too.

  63. 63
    Adam M Says:

    Sad day, you guys. Luis Durango AND Felix Pie are both gone.

    Just work it off with some ‘cue.

  64. 64
    Smitty Says:

    Chizik is out, so who comes in? There is a lot of NCAA talk, will that scare anyone off?

    Stu, Franklin’s name is being tossed around for NC State. No way he leaves for that,right? I’m not sure NC State is an upgrade.

  65. 65
    Rob Cope Says:

    I’m reading a couple of Jimbo-Fisher-to-Auburn articles, and I can’t imagine he would leave a better program for Auburn, regardless of his two losses this season. Not a chance, right?

  66. 66
    Rob Cope Says:

    And let me echo those who think Notre Dame doesn’t belong in the NC. They beat Stanford, Michigan, and Oklahoma, sure, but they’d be a two-loss team in the SEC. Count it.

    Now that my team is the one being left out because of the BCS (instead of the team let in in 2006 and 2008), I’m now fully on board with a playoff! It was so easy to convert me…

  67. 67
    Smitty Says:

    There is a lot of chatter about the NCAA and Auburn. I think that would scare a bunch of people off.

  68. 68
    csg Says:

    #65 – Some people think Petrino has already been hired. I would think Auburn wouldve announced an interim coach for recruiting purposes if they didnt already have the replacement. Id say there is about an 80% chance that Petrino will be named by this time next week.

  69. 69
    Smitty Says:

    If you have someone, I would think you would announce it ASAP for recruiting.

  70. 70
    NickH Says:

    @57 According to Bowden, the Braves are currently considered the favorite to land BJ Upton, with Philly and a mystery team (Nats or Reds) also in the running. https://twitter.com/JimBowdenESPNxm/status/272789171536551936

    I have to wonder how much more Bourn is asking (in terms of years or dollars) than Upton… given that the Braves are apparently pushing hard for Upton, I would think it means the Braves consider Bourn to be out of their price range, or they prefer Upton regardless of price.

  71. 71
    Stu Says:

    64—LOL.

    Like I said before, he’s not going *anywhere* anytime soon, and that certainly includes a crappy job like NC State.

  72. 72
    Jorge Says:

    Anybody got bowl predictions? Can believe I will actually have New Years plans.

  73. 73
    Stu Says:

    Think Ole Miss will be in Birmingham, Jorge.

  74. 74
    braves14 Says:

    Braves14′s bowl projections

    BCS title game: Bama
    Sugar: Florida
    Capital One: Georgia
    Cotton: ATM
    Outback: USC
    Chic-Fil-A: LSU
    Gator: Vanderbilt
    Music City: MSU
    Liberty: Ole Miss

  75. 75
    Alex Remington (Another Alex R.) Says:

    Really hurtin’, you guys.

  76. 76
    Rob Cope Says:

    I’m on it!

  77. 77
    sansho1 Says:

    I know we want to keep fresh content going — but it’s a long offseason, and I’m happy as long as we have an open forum to talk about anything under the sun. So don’t sweat it too much, Alex — we’re not going anywhere.

  78. 78
    Alex Remington (Another Alex R.) Says:

    Oh, sorry, I was just channeling @dadboner. I’ve got stuff scheduled for the next few days. Those of you who have pledged to write stuff, can you get it to me in the next week or three?

  79. 79
    sansho1 Says:

    Yessir!

  80. 80
    ryan c Says:

    Joey, if you’re still around and checking Braves Journal through the offseason, I’m sorry for the delay in sending your book. It’ll be there by the end of the week or the first of next. Congrats long overdue!

  81. 81
    mravery Says:

    So am I really in the minority in preferring Upton to Bourne? Guess I’m just more scared by non-elite FAs over the age of 30.

  82. 82
    ububba Says:

    Bama has opened as a 7.5 point favorite over UGA.

  83. 83
    Stu Says:

    78—Almost certainly not. :)

    (I’ll get you at least one of them in that timeframe.)

    81—I’m with you. Strongly.

    (Too strongly.)

  84. 84
    Stu Says:

    74—Liberty’s not getting an SEC team this year. Compass (Birmingham) gets the last team, which is likely to be one of the Mississippi schools, IMO.

  85. 85
    Bethany Says:

    I’m becoming concerned that Stu is going to show up at Upton’s home and threaten him if he doesn’t sign with us.

  86. 86
    braves14 Says:

    84 — From what I’ve read, they have made a rule that they will choose a Big East team but only if the SEC doesn’t have enough bowl-eligible teams, which they will. Birmingham will be the one selecting a non-SEC team.

  87. 87
    braves14 Says:

    I also prefer Upton over Bourn.

  88. 88
    Stu Says:

    No, the Compass has priority over the Liberty this year. Promise. Liberty will be sans SEC.

  89. 89
    kc Says:

    It would be so funny if the Falcons get the first seed but ending up playing the Giants in the second round.

  90. 90
    cliff Says:

    Problems with Bourn,

    1. Boras likes to let the market stir and doesn’t move quick. Braves NEED (not just LIKE) to get their slots filled and know where they stand.
    2. Assuming 5 year contract on Bourn (and they are “talking” more), Year 1, he is probably better, year 2 he might be better. By year 3, Bourn will be a below average offensive center fielder and an average fielder. And that assumes a progession, not a major injury or drop off a cliff (and think about how many centerfielders with lots of innings tanked in their early 30′s like Murphy, A. Jones, Joe DiMaggio. I don’t mean “declined”, I mean became significantly less in a short period of time).

  91. 91
    Alex Remington (Another Alex R.) Says:

    That’s actually an advantage with Bourn. He doesn’t have a lot of innings. He got a late start as an everyday player; his first full year came when he was 25. So he’s unlikely to completely collapse like some of those guys did.

  92. 92
    Seat Painter Says:

    I don’t particularly have a problem with Upton over Bourn. Nor do I have a problem with Bourn over Upton. I worry where we will replace Bourn’s leadoff skills more than I worry about replacing Bourn’s defense in center.

    Maybe Wren is looking for a LF lead-off type? That would fit into his M.O. of doing the unexpected.

    LF Lead-off guy
    3B Prado
    RF Heyward
    1B Freeman
    CF Upton
    2B Uggla
    C Laird (gag! at least until BMac returns)
    SS Simmons

    So, who among you cognescenti is aware of a competent lead-off-y leftfielder?

  93. 93
    justhank Says:

    There’s always Kelly Johnson. (kidding, sorta)

  94. 94
    Alex Remington (Another Alex R.) Says:

    New thread.

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